◆ Midday Risk Monitor · Sep 25
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good afternoon.
【Key Takeaway】
The past 24 hours reflect a mild deleveraging event rather than a trend reversal. The Fear & Greed Index reading is 71, still in the Greed zone, indicating that sentiment has not been fully flushed out. Our stance is to wait—no directional bet.
【Risk Dashboard】
· Fear & Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
· 24h Liquidations: $74.49M｜Long $47.96M｜Short $26.53M
· Peak period: 09-24 17:00, ETHUSDT Long liquidated $17.52M
· Open Interest: BTC $8.13B｜ETH $6.09B
【Liquidation Categorization】
· Trader jasonleo: Will close longs if BTC breaks below $79,000; if it spikes to $100,000, he will set defenses with short orders
· “Majii” reduced holdings of BTC and ETH long positions, with an account loss of $1.42M over the past 24 hours
· Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $617M, with longs being the main liquidation side
Our categorization: a “knife-plate” shakeout. At 09-24 17:00, one-hour ETHUSDT long liquidations were $17.52M and shorts were only $0.40M. Leverage was clearly crowded on the Long side—this kind of needle-cleaning is not surprising. The network’s total liquidations in 24 hours were $617M, mainly from longs, which indicates leverage crowding—not a directional signal. Trader jasonleo’s plan to close longs at $79k and place shorts at $100k is just a sentiment sample; “Majii” cutting BTC and ETH longs and losing $1.42M in 24 hours is also evidence of crowding and does not justify following.
【On-chain & Meme】
· Robinhood Chain research note: In August, on-chain Gas revenue exceeded $6M, and DEX trading volume rose to $1.5B
· Arc on-chain token ARGUS: Up 47.8% over the past 24 hours; market cap currently $27.44M
· Arkham data: Morgan Stanley on-chain entities hold about $775M, nearly all in Bitcoin
Our categorization: sentiment and liquidity overflow. Arc’s ARGUS is up 47.8% on the chain over 24 hours, with a $27.44M market cap. This kind of Meme momentum arrives and disappears quickly; its value lies in signaling sentiment temperature—not presenting a configuration opportunity. Robinhood Chain shows August Gas revenue above $6M and DEX volume at $1.5B, reflecting a rebound in on-chain activity. Arkham indicates Morgan Stanley on-chain entities hold about $775M, almost entirely BTC—capital is shifting from retail to institutional-type funds. This is more worth recording than the price itself.
【Macro Linkage】
Macro has not provided a reason for “liquidity dumping.” The 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 5.162%, up 4.8 basis points in a day; DXY is at 101.3, up 2.38% over the past month. Japan’s 30-year government bond yield rose to 4.21%, the highest since Japan listed in 1999; Japan’s 20-year yield rose to 3.955%. Long-end rates are rising across the board, and the hawkish environment hasn’t changed—valuation denominators for risk assets are still being pushed higher. BTC is at 84,112, down 0.35% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2,676, down 0.45% in 24 hours. The drawdowns are limited, but there is no independent driver; the temporary disconnect with macro’s negative correlation is unclear.
【Positioning Advice】
For new entries, keep leverage low. The Greed zone is not a place to add. For existing positions, prioritize capital preservation: control single-direction exposure and place your Stop Loss at a distance that the market’s noise can tolerate. BTCUSDT open interest is $8.13B, and ETHUSDT is $6.09B—existing leverage remains high. The longer the consolidation lasts, the wider the Range for the next directional choice.
$BTC #BTC #Liquidations
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bon après-midi.
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good afternoon.
【Key Takeaway】
The past 24 hours reflect a mild deleveraging event rather than a trend reversal. The Fear & Greed Index reading is 71, still in the Greed zone, indicating that sentiment has not been fully flushed out. Our stance is to wait—no directional bet.
【Risk Dashboard】
· Fear & Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
· 24h Liquidations: $74.49M｜Long $47.96M｜Short $26.53M
· Peak period: 09-24 17:00, ETHUSDT Long liquidated $17.52M
· Open Interest: BTC $8.13B｜ETH $6.09B
【Liquidation Categorization】
· Trader jasonleo: Will close longs if BTC breaks below $79,000; if it spikes to $100,000, he will set defenses with short orders
· “Majii” reduced holdings of BTC and ETH long positions, with an account loss of $1.42M over the past 24 hours
· Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $617M, with longs being the main liquidation side
Our categorization: a “knife-plate” shakeout. At 09-24 17:00, one-hour ETHUSDT long liquidations were $17.52M and shorts were only $0.40M. Leverage was clearly crowded on the Long side—this kind of needle-cleaning is not surprising. The network’s total liquidations in 24 hours were $617M, mainly from longs, which indicates leverage crowding—not a directional signal. Trader jasonleo’s plan to close longs at $79k and place shorts at $100k is just a sentiment sample; “Majii” cutting BTC and ETH longs and losing $1.42M in 24 hours is also evidence of crowding and does not justify following.
【On-chain & Meme】
· Robinhood Chain research note: In August, on-chain Gas revenue exceeded $6M, and DEX trading volume rose to $1.5B
· Arc on-chain token ARGUS: Up 47.8% over the past 24 hours; market cap currently $27.44M
· Arkham data: Morgan Stanley on-chain entities hold about $775M, nearly all in Bitcoin
Our categorization: sentiment and liquidity overflow. Arc’s ARGUS is up 47.8% on the chain over 24 hours, with a $27.44M market cap. This kind of Meme momentum arrives and disappears quickly; its value lies in signaling sentiment temperature—not presenting a configuration opportunity. Robinhood Chain shows August Gas revenue above $6M and DEX volume at $1.5B, reflecting a rebound in on-chain activity. Arkham indicates Morgan Stanley on-chain entities hold about $775M, almost entirely BTC—capital is shifting from retail to institutional-type funds. This is more worth recording than the price itself.
【Macro Linkage】
Macro has not provided a reason for “liquidity dumping.” The 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 5.162%, up 4.8 basis points in a day; DXY is at 101.3, up 2.38% over the past month. Japan’s 30-year government bond yield rose to 4.21%, the highest since Japan listed in 1999; Japan’s 20-year yield rose to 3.955%. Long-end rates are rising across the board, and the hawkish environment hasn’t changed—valuation denominators for risk assets are still being pushed higher. BTC is at 84,112, down 0.35% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2,676, down 0.45% in 24 hours. The drawdowns are limited, but there is no independent driver; the temporary disconnect with macro’s negative correlation is unclear.
【Positioning Advice】
For new entries, keep leverage low. The Greed zone is not a place to add. For existing positions, prioritize capital preservation: control single-direction exposure and place your Stop Loss at a distance that the market’s noise can tolerate. BTCUSDT open interest is $8.13B, and ETHUSDT is $6.09B—existing leverage remains high. The longer the consolidation lasts, the wider the Range for the next directional choice.
$BTC #BTC #Liquidations
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bon après-midi.
