There’s been a lot of information from last night to now—let me pick out the key points.

Bitget is in trouble. The CEO personally admitted that hot wallets were drained of about $350 million, and withdrawals have been temporarily halted. Every time an exchange has an incident, $BTC always ends up being cut along with it first—like what happened with FTX that year. This time should be similar. Repeating an old saying: if your coins are on an exchange, you’re only a tenant of the numbers. If the keys aren’t in your hands, then they’re not really your coins.

The macro side is even worse. Williams went full hawk, saying it’s reasonable to keep raising rates again by the end of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield is heading to its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the Houthis blew up facilities of Saudi Aramco again, and WTI jumped 5% overnight to trade above $96; Brent is up to 106. With interest rates and oil prices both pushing higher, it’s genuinely hard for risk assets to rally.

The only somewhat comforting news is that China-US held the 8th round of negotiations and reached multiple consensuses, giving the market something to cling to.

My stance is simple: don’t get overexcited this week. If you can, lower contract leverage—hold spot and keep your hands off major coins. A crash isn’t the scary part; the scary part is going all-in on leveraged positions and hitting a black swan.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #加密货币 #交易所安全 #美联储 #BTC