Costco’s Q4 earnings report has already been released—not “about to be released.” Overall, things look relatively strong: Q4 revenue was about $95.7 billion, up 11.2% year over year, and EPS came in at $6.75, beating the market’s prior expectation of roughly $6.5. Same-store sales grew 9.4%, while online business grew 19.5%.
The most interesting part is the membership data. Membership fee revenue grew 7.3%, the global renewal rate reached 89.8%, and the Executive membership count is already 42.3 million. This suggests that even though consumers are facing inflation and high interest rates, their spending willingness hasn’t clearly fallen apart.
However, about $0.15 of the EPS came from a one-time tariff refund, so this earnings report shouldn’t be judged solely by the words “better than expected.”
So what does this mean for crypto?
In short: U.S. consumer demand is still strong, so the Fed isn’t as likely to shift to easing quickly.
That means for BTC in the short term, strong consumer spending has both a positive side and a pressure side. If the economy isn’t in recession, risk appetite has support; but if consumer spending stays too strong and keeps inflation and interest rates elevated, Treasury yields could continue to weigh on BTC valuation.
Next, it’s recommended to look at Costco’s earnings together with Treasury yields, oil prices, and inflation data. One earnings report alone is of limited significance, but if you see “strong consumption + high oil prices + high yields” all at the same time, the macro pressure on BTC will be more apparent. Conversely, if consumption starts to cool, inflation falls, and yields move lower, expectations for market liquidity could improve again.
The most interesting part is the membership data. Membership fee revenue grew 7.3%, the global renewal rate reached 89.8%, and the Executive membership count is already 42.3 million. This suggests that even though consumers are facing inflation and high interest rates, their spending willingness hasn’t clearly fallen apart.
However, about $0.15 of the EPS came from a one-time tariff refund, so this earnings report shouldn’t be judged solely by the words “better than expected.”
So what does this mean for crypto?
In short: U.S. consumer demand is still strong, so the Fed isn’t as likely to shift to easing quickly.
That means for BTC in the short term, strong consumer spending has both a positive side and a pressure side. If the economy isn’t in recession, risk appetite has support; but if consumer spending stays too strong and keeps inflation and interest rates elevated, Treasury yields could continue to weigh on BTC valuation.
Next, it’s recommended to look at Costco’s earnings together with Treasury yields, oil prices, and inflation data. One earnings report alone is of limited significance, but if you see “strong consumption + high oil prices + high yields” all at the same time, the macro pressure on BTC will be more apparent. Conversely, if consumption starts to cool, inflation falls, and yields move lower, expectations for market liquidity could improve again.