Gold rises to $4,290, silver climbs above $64, and precious metals continue to strengthen.
But strangely, BTC has recently pulled back from around $87,000.
Does this mean gold and BTC have completely diverged?
I don’t think it’s that simple.
Recently, the U.S. and Iran resumed contact. In theory, this should reduce part of the geopolitical risk. Yet gold keeps rising, which suggests the market is worried about more than just “war continuing.”
It’s also long-term issues such as inflation, U.S. debt, fiscal deficits, and monetary credit.
So gold’s rise doesn’t necessarily mean investors are trading “the war continuing.” It could also be trading “long-term uncertainty is still very high.”
BTC’s attributes are different.
In the short term, BTC is still more easily affected by U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and global risk appetite.
If Treasury yields stay high and the dollar stays strong, then even if gold rises, BTC may face pressure.
But if later we see:
U.S.-Iran relations continue to ease;
oil prices fall;
U.S. Treasury yields drop;
the dollar weakens;
then BTC’s macro environment would improve significantly.
At that point, gold and BTC might even rise together again.
So don’t interpret it simply as “gold up = BTC down.”
What’s truly worth watching is how oil prices and Treasury yields behave at the same time as gold rises.
If gold rises, oil falls, and Treasury yields also fall, it indicates the market is shifting from “geopolitical risk + inflation” to “a loosening expectation + risk hedging coexisting,” which could actually be a relatively good combination for BTC.
If gold rises, oil rises, and Treasury yields also rise, that would suggest the market is still in a high-inflation + high-hedging environment, and BTC’s near-term pressure would be greater.
These three variables are more important than looking at the gold price alone.
But strangely, BTC has recently pulled back from around $87,000.
Does this mean gold and BTC have completely diverged?
I don’t think it’s that simple.
Recently, the U.S. and Iran resumed contact. In theory, this should reduce part of the geopolitical risk. Yet gold keeps rising, which suggests the market is worried about more than just “war continuing.”
It’s also long-term issues such as inflation, U.S. debt, fiscal deficits, and monetary credit.
So gold’s rise doesn’t necessarily mean investors are trading “the war continuing.” It could also be trading “long-term uncertainty is still very high.”
BTC’s attributes are different.
In the short term, BTC is still more easily affected by U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and global risk appetite.
If Treasury yields stay high and the dollar stays strong, then even if gold rises, BTC may face pressure.
But if later we see:
U.S.-Iran relations continue to ease;
oil prices fall;
U.S. Treasury yields drop;
the dollar weakens;
then BTC’s macro environment would improve significantly.
At that point, gold and BTC might even rise together again.
So don’t interpret it simply as “gold up = BTC down.”
What’s truly worth watching is how oil prices and Treasury yields behave at the same time as gold rises.
If gold rises, oil falls, and Treasury yields also fall, it indicates the market is shifting from “geopolitical risk + inflation” to “a loosening expectation + risk hedging coexisting,” which could actually be a relatively good combination for BTC.
If gold rises, oil rises, and Treasury yields also rise, that would suggest the market is still in a high-inflation + high-hedging environment, and BTC’s near-term pressure would be greater.
These three variables are more important than looking at the gold price alone.