📊 Chan Lun Trading Points (Buy on Support / Short on Pressure)｜2026-09-25 07:55 (Beijing Time)
For each instrument, only push the side with the higher probability (must have positive expectation). Prioritize the top 2 setups with higher win rates, and entries at ≤4% are considered as “acceptable.” Not investment advice.
⭐ The 2 best opportunities to consider today (direction not limited):
🥇 🟢Buy Bitcoin: Buy 79,889–81,178 (needs a pullback of 3.9% to be in position), Stop loss 75,623, First target 87,385 | Win rate ~73% Risk-reward 2.8:1 Expectation +1.78R
🥈 🟢Buy Gold: Buy 4,232.1–4,266.1 (needs a pullback of 0.3% to be in position), Stop loss 3,989.4, First target 4,405.8 | Win rate ~67% Risk-reward 1.8:1 Expectation +0.88R
👀 Watchlist (good direction, but not reachable; if it doesn’t hit, no order will be placed): 🔴 Short Google (Expectation +2.44R, needs a rebound of 5.7%)
🥈 ◆ Gold XAU Current price 4,278.0
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~67% | Risk-reward 1.8:1 | Expectation +0.88R (needs a pullback of 0.3% to be in position)
Buy 4,232.1–4,266.1; add-on on deep pullback 4,009.6–4,041.8; Stop loss 3,989.4; First target 4,405.8, Second target 4,505.0
3 buys on the daily chart; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation; no obvious news (neutral)
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~37%, risk-reward 4.0:1, expectation +0.81R (needs a rebound of 2.6%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
🥇 ◆ Bitcoin BTC Current price 84,368
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~73% | Risk-reward 2.8:1 | Expectation +1.78R (needs a pullback of 3.9% to be in position)
Buy 79,889–81,178; add-on on deep pullback 76,238–77,468; Stop loss 75,623; First target 87,385, Second target 94,555
Daily 3 buys + 4h 3 buys resonance; follow the daily trend direction; news flow neutral (3 related items)
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~36%, risk-reward 4.9:1, expectation +1.14R (needs a rebound of 2.7%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
◆ Google GOOGL Current price 342.76
🔴 Bias is to short, but the entry level is too far: needs a 5.7% rebound to reach 362.33–366.71; if it doesn’t reach, no order today (Win rate ~48%, risk-reward 6.2:1, expectation +2.44R)
Technicals: no Chan Lun buy/sell points; pure support/resistance level game; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation
The other side (long) has a win rate of ~31%, risk-reward 4.0:1, expectation +0.55R (needs a pullback of 1.6%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
◆ Apple AAPL Current price 336.26
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~60% | Risk-reward 1.6:1 | Expectation +0.59R (needs a pullback of 0.2% to be in position)
Buy 331.59–335.59; add-on on deep pullback 315.56–319.36; Stop loss 313.33; First target 345.53
2 buys on the daily chart; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation; news flow neutral (4 related items)
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~35%, risk-reward 2.7:1, expectation +0.29R (needs a rebound of 2.1%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
◆ Intel INTC Current price 127.44
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~60% | Risk-reward 2.8:1 | Expectation +1.29R (needs a pullback of 0.9% to be in position)
Buy 124.86–126.36; add-on on deep pullback 107.77–109.07; Stop loss 107.01; First target 144.94
4h 3 buys; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation; news flow strongly bullish (3 related items): Intel Shares Rise as Agentic AI Keeps CPUs in the Loop
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~20%, risk-reward 10.3:1, expectation +1.25R (needs a rebound of 13.0%), and strong opposite-direction news—do not do it
🧪 Simulated account (400U/10x/40U margin per trade/valid for 24h/max 10 trades): Equity ≈ 400.1U (realized +0.0U, floating profit +0.1U) ｜ Trade 2/10 ｜ Pending orders 1, Position 1 ｜ 0 wins 0 losses (0 trades settled in total)
#缠论 #BTC #黄金 #Trading Points
For each instrument, only push the side with the higher probability (must have positive expectation). Prioritize the top 2 setups with higher win rates, and entries at ≤4% are considered as “acceptable.” Not investment advice.
⭐ The 2 best opportunities to consider today (direction not limited):
🥇 🟢Buy Bitcoin: Buy 79,889–81,178 (needs a pullback of 3.9% to be in position), Stop loss 75,623, First target 87,385 | Win rate ~73% Risk-reward 2.8:1 Expectation +1.78R
🥈 🟢Buy Gold: Buy 4,232.1–4,266.1 (needs a pullback of 0.3% to be in position), Stop loss 3,989.4, First target 4,405.8 | Win rate ~67% Risk-reward 1.8:1 Expectation +0.88R
👀 Watchlist (good direction, but not reachable; if it doesn’t hit, no order will be placed): 🔴 Short Google (Expectation +2.44R, needs a rebound of 5.7%)
🥈 ◆ Gold XAU Current price 4,278.0
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~67% | Risk-reward 1.8:1 | Expectation +0.88R (needs a pullback of 0.3% to be in position)
Buy 4,232.1–4,266.1; add-on on deep pullback 4,009.6–4,041.8; Stop loss 3,989.4; First target 4,405.8, Second target 4,505.0
3 buys on the daily chart; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation; no obvious news (neutral)
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~37%, risk-reward 4.0:1, expectation +0.81R (needs a rebound of 2.6%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
🥇 ◆ Bitcoin BTC Current price 84,368
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~73% | Risk-reward 2.8:1 | Expectation +1.78R (needs a pullback of 3.9% to be in position)
Buy 79,889–81,178; add-on on deep pullback 76,238–77,468; Stop loss 75,623; First target 87,385, Second target 94,555
Daily 3 buys + 4h 3 buys resonance; follow the daily trend direction; news flow neutral (3 related items)
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~36%, risk-reward 4.9:1, expectation +1.14R (needs a rebound of 2.7%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
◆ Google GOOGL Current price 342.76
🔴 Bias is to short, but the entry level is too far: needs a 5.7% rebound to reach 362.33–366.71; if it doesn’t reach, no order today (Win rate ~48%, risk-reward 6.2:1, expectation +2.44R)
Technicals: no Chan Lun buy/sell points; pure support/resistance level game; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation
The other side (long) has a win rate of ~31%, risk-reward 4.0:1, expectation +0.55R (needs a pullback of 1.6%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
◆ Apple AAPL Current price 336.26
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~60% | Risk-reward 1.6:1 | Expectation +0.59R (needs a pullback of 0.2% to be in position)
Buy 331.59–335.59; add-on on deep pullback 315.56–319.36; Stop loss 313.33; First target 345.53
2 buys on the daily chart; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation; news flow neutral (4 related items)
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~35%, risk-reward 2.7:1, expectation +0.29R (needs a rebound of 2.1%), lower win rate—do not do it when prioritizing high win rates
◆ Intel INTC Current price 127.44
🟢 Recommended long | Win rate ~60% | Risk-reward 2.8:1 | Expectation +1.29R (needs a pullback of 0.9% to be in position)
Buy 124.86–126.36; add-on on deep pullback 107.77–109.07; Stop loss 107.01; First target 144.94
4h 3 buys; follow the daily trend direction; last segment pending 4h confirmation; news flow strongly bullish (3 related items): Intel Shares Rise as Agentic AI Keeps CPUs in the Loop
The other side (short) has a win rate of ~20%, risk-reward 10.3:1, expectation +1.25R (needs a rebound of 13.0%), and strong opposite-direction news—do not do it
🧪 Simulated account (400U/10x/40U margin per trade/valid for 24h/max 10 trades): Equity ≈ 400.1U (realized +0.0U, floating profit +0.1U) ｜ Trade 2/10 ｜ Pending orders 1, Position 1 ｜ 0 wins 0 losses (0 trades settled in total)
#缠论 #BTC #黄金 #Trading Points