9.25 Morning Quick Reportš
BTC is currently around 84,400. On Monday and Tuesday it surged to test 87,400; on Wednesday, after the PMI data came out, it was immediately dumped, breaking 85,000. On Thursday it bottomed at 82,800, with the Asian session pulling back slightly. ETH is around 2,680. The rally around 87,000 couldnāt hold. This round of short-covering has basically already run a good part of its course.
Macro: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken above 5% for the first time since 2007. The White House directly debunked the news, saying the diesel export ban story is false. TSMCās contract manufacturing quotes have been raised again by 3%-6%. In the U.S., September services and manufacturing PMIs both hit multi-year highs. Costs are moving up alongside oil prices. Official Bahl commented that the risk of inflation meeting targets is rising, and further rate hikes are not ruled out. The U.S. dollar is above 101; the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.12%.
On Thursday, U.S. stocks had three straight sessions of decline for the Dow. During the day, news circulated that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased ceasefire. The idea is to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. Stocks rebounded from the lows on the back of the news, but Treasury yields didnāt ease. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.15 and the 30-year reached 5.45. Market pricing suggests the probability of another rate hike in October is close to 70%. Oil prices also show resilience. Another incident occurred in the strait where ships were attacked; Iranās conditions havenāt changed. Brent holds above 106, while WTI is back to 95. There is talk of negotiations, but no agreement has been reached yet.
Crypto: Interest rates and oil are both rising, putting initial pressure on risk assets. The clear bill still hasnāt passedādonāt expect regulators to provide positive news to rescue the market. The rally on Monday was essentially premium unwinding plus short liquidations, not the start of a new uptrend.
Above 84,500 is the pressure level after this pullback. Once that breaks, watch 83,000 and then 81,000 on the downside. If oil keeps rising and Treasury yields donāt fall back, Mondayās market wonāt look very good. Donāt max out your position all at once on Friday.
The above is only a recap of the market action and does not constitute any investment advice.
BTC is currently around 84,400. On Monday and Tuesday it surged to test 87,400; on Wednesday, after the PMI data came out, it was immediately dumped, breaking 85,000. On Thursday it bottomed at 82,800, with the Asian session pulling back slightly. ETH is around 2,680. The rally around 87,000 couldnāt hold. This round of short-covering has basically already run a good part of its course.
Macro: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken above 5% for the first time since 2007. The White House directly debunked the news, saying the diesel export ban story is false. TSMCās contract manufacturing quotes have been raised again by 3%-6%. In the U.S., September services and manufacturing PMIs both hit multi-year highs. Costs are moving up alongside oil prices. Official Bahl commented that the risk of inflation meeting targets is rising, and further rate hikes are not ruled out. The U.S. dollar is above 101; the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.12%.
On Thursday, U.S. stocks had three straight sessions of decline for the Dow. During the day, news circulated that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased ceasefire. The idea is to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. Stocks rebounded from the lows on the back of the news, but Treasury yields didnāt ease. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.15 and the 30-year reached 5.45. Market pricing suggests the probability of another rate hike in October is close to 70%. Oil prices also show resilience. Another incident occurred in the strait where ships were attacked; Iranās conditions havenāt changed. Brent holds above 106, while WTI is back to 95. There is talk of negotiations, but no agreement has been reached yet.
Crypto: Interest rates and oil are both rising, putting initial pressure on risk assets. The clear bill still hasnāt passedādonāt expect regulators to provide positive news to rescue the market. The rally on Monday was essentially premium unwinding plus short liquidations, not the start of a new uptrend.
Above 84,500 is the pressure level after this pullback. Once that breaks, watch 83,000 and then 81,000 on the downside. If oil keeps rising and Treasury yields donāt fall back, Mondayās market wonāt look very good. Donāt max out your position all at once on Friday.
The above is only a recap of the market action and does not constitute any investment advice.