Bitcoin Trading: 97% of those who insisted on day trading lost money, according to a study by FGV requested by the CVM. That’s why I simulated, for 42 days, a trader strictly following one of the world’s most famous methods, Turtle Trading, and put him up against an AI agent. Same outcome in terms of money: US$ 91.23, with 5x leverage.
$BTC
The trader’s rules:
- Buy when the day closes above the highest level of the last 20 days.
- Only enter if the 20-day average is above the 50-day one.
- Stop at 2 times the normal price move of the day (ATR).
- Sell when the day closes below the lowest level of the last 10 days.
What happened:
- In 42 days, only 2 entries
- Bought 1 time on 19/08 at ~US$ 69,310, sold on 15/09 at ~US$ 75,600: +9.1% in price
- Bought 2nd time on 21/09 at ~US$ 86,579, still open at the end of the test
The part that changes everything is how much money he puts into each trade.
trades:
- Risking 1% of the account: +1.4%
- 25% of capital: +7.2%
- 50% of capital: +14.4%
- All capital: +28.8%
- AI agent (~2.5% per entry): +18.2%.
$UNI
The trader only beats the AI by putting all the money into each trade. And if the analysis were wrong, the stop would take 24% of the account in a single go.
My take: most people’s problem isn’t lack of a method—it’s the size of the bet and emotion. And this simulation trader is perfect: he doesn’t hesitate, he’s not afraid, he doesn’t touch the stop. In real life, people do worse. If even the perfect trader can’t beat the AI without risking everything, it’s worth considering whether spending hours on the chart is the best use of your time. Past results don’t guarantee the next one, and none of this is zero risk.
The full test, with the chart explained step by step, goes live today at 7pm on my channel. Search for "Diovane Lopes" on YouTube.
Images, in this order (the first one is the cover)
$ONDO
$BTC
The trader’s rules:
- Buy when the day closes above the highest level of the last 20 days.
- Only enter if the 20-day average is above the 50-day one.
- Stop at 2 times the normal price move of the day (ATR).
- Sell when the day closes below the lowest level of the last 10 days.
What happened:
- In 42 days, only 2 entries
- Bought 1 time on 19/08 at ~US$ 69,310, sold on 15/09 at ~US$ 75,600: +9.1% in price
- Bought 2nd time on 21/09 at ~US$ 86,579, still open at the end of the test
The part that changes everything is how much money he puts into each trade.
trades:
- Risking 1% of the account: +1.4%
- 25% of capital: +7.2%
- 50% of capital: +14.4%
- All capital: +28.8%
- AI agent (~2.5% per entry): +18.2%.
$UNI
The trader only beats the AI by putting all the money into each trade. And if the analysis were wrong, the stop would take 24% of the account in a single go.
My take: most people’s problem isn’t lack of a method—it’s the size of the bet and emotion. And this simulation trader is perfect: he doesn’t hesitate, he’s not afraid, he doesn’t touch the stop. In real life, people do worse. If even the perfect trader can’t beat the AI without risking everything, it’s worth considering whether spending hours on the chart is the best use of your time. Past results don’t guarantee the next one, and none of this is zero risk.
The full test, with the chart explained step by step, goes live today at 7pm on my channel. Search for "Diovane Lopes" on YouTube.
Images, in this order (the first one is the cover)
$ONDO
