$BROCCOLI714 This drop isn’t that violent, but the structure looks ugly.
On the 15m timeframe, it’s down 4.7%; OI drops right along with it—on the 1h timeframe, it’s down 2.29%, and notional shrinks by 1M. Price falls and positions are reduced; this is a typical long deleveraging move—not new shorts entering to smash it, but insiders running out. The passive trade is worse by -6.3%; the buy/sell ratio is 0.88. There’s selling pressure, but more importantly there are stop-losses and position cutting.
The key is that OI’s percentile is at an abnormal 98.8%, the 2nd highest across the whole pool. The funding rate is also still at a high percentile in recent times—longs were squeezed too tightly beforehand. Several consecutive cycles are contracting, and depth confirms that it has touched the boundary of the recent range.
In this situation, don’t rush to catch it. Leverage hasn’t been fully cleared yet. Wait until OI stabilizes before talking.
On the 15m timeframe, it’s down 4.7%; OI drops right along with it—on the 1h timeframe, it’s down 2.29%, and notional shrinks by 1M. Price falls and positions are reduced; this is a typical long deleveraging move—not new shorts entering to smash it, but insiders running out. The passive trade is worse by -6.3%; the buy/sell ratio is 0.88. There’s selling pressure, but more importantly there are stop-losses and position cutting.
The key is that OI’s percentile is at an abnormal 98.8%, the 2nd highest across the whole pool. The funding rate is also still at a high percentile in recent times—longs were squeezed too tightly beforehand. Several consecutive cycles are contracting, and depth confirms that it has touched the boundary of the recent range.
In this situation, don’t rush to catch it. Leverage hasn’t been fully cleared yet. Wait until OI stabilizes before talking.
