#比特币本周回落至约84600美元
This news is actually a bit strange..
🔄 进群看风向
The broader market has been grinding back and forth around 84,000 these past two days, and everyone has been watching prices.. But what’s happening simultaneously—yet barely anyone is discussing—is a much smaller matter: an analysis has been produced that specifically tracks the strategy of “hoarding coins in one’s own company.” It compares the top 20 by scale: their stock prices versus the value of the coins they hold. Only 4 companies have stock prices that are still higher than the value of their reserves; the other 16 are all trading at a discount..
First, let’s clarify what these companies are doing.. Their way of making money is basically a loop: if the stock price is higher than the value of the coins they hold, they issue new shares, use the raised money to buy more coins. Since there are more coins per share, the stock price then has another reason to rise, and the loop continues.. This mechanism can only work if the stock price stays above the value of the coins.
So what’s “bad” about the discount isn’t the face—it’s the engine.. Once the stock price falls below the value of the coins, the same single step of issuing more shares turns “buy coins with extra cash” into “dilute existing shareholders.” The loop reverses on the spot.. What’s even more interesting is that two companies respond in completely opposite ways: one simply stops buying coins and also stops issuing shares; instead, it spends over $170 million to repurchase its own preferred stock, and even raises the repurchase authorization for digital-asset securities to $2 billion; the other keeps buying, using the $36.4 million-plus raised via preferred shares to acquire 469 bitcoins, bringing its holdings to 25,000 coins..
But the problem is..
A discount doesn’t equal a bargain.. That assessment didn’t factor in debt and preferred stock; it looks only at a single discount figure and assumes it’s cheap to buy assets, which makes it easy to misread the direction; plus these companies no longer rely solely on coin hoarding to justify their valuations—one earns more than 89% of its second-quarter revenue from cloud infrastructure, another puts more than 85% of its held Ethereum to earn interest, and another claims it has received a network-wide share of block rewards exceeding 18%.
What’s really worth watching is another number: how many coins are there per share.. In a premium era, that number should keep moving upward each quarter, because the coins acquired through dilution exceed the dilution itself. In a discount era, it should stop.. That’s why this becomes intriguing—over the next few months, if they generally stop pushing that number higher, it suggests the loop is truly reversed, not just a temporary emotional move in the stock price..
Going one layer deeper, the direction of capital rotation is also shifting.. In the early years, the premium that existed for this type of stock came in part from a “gateway gap”: institutions couldn’t buy coins directly and could only buy their stock. Now, with more regulated funds and custody options available, that entry gap has been leveled. The market has started to price them based on business operations and financing terms—not solely based on the number of coins they hold..
Next, watch two things: first, whether the number of coins held per share has stopped increasing; second, whether stock price rises and falls are increasingly determined by other lines of business. If the second comes true, whether these companies still qualify as “crypto treasury companies” would be quite interesting..
This news is actually a bit strange..
🔄 进群看风向
The broader market has been grinding back and forth around 84,000 these past two days, and everyone has been watching prices.. But what’s happening simultaneously—yet barely anyone is discussing—is a much smaller matter: an analysis has been produced that specifically tracks the strategy of “hoarding coins in one’s own company.” It compares the top 20 by scale: their stock prices versus the value of the coins they hold. Only 4 companies have stock prices that are still higher than the value of their reserves; the other 16 are all trading at a discount..
First, let’s clarify what these companies are doing.. Their way of making money is basically a loop: if the stock price is higher than the value of the coins they hold, they issue new shares, use the raised money to buy more coins. Since there are more coins per share, the stock price then has another reason to rise, and the loop continues.. This mechanism can only work if the stock price stays above the value of the coins.
So what’s “bad” about the discount isn’t the face—it’s the engine.. Once the stock price falls below the value of the coins, the same single step of issuing more shares turns “buy coins with extra cash” into “dilute existing shareholders.” The loop reverses on the spot.. What’s even more interesting is that two companies respond in completely opposite ways: one simply stops buying coins and also stops issuing shares; instead, it spends over $170 million to repurchase its own preferred stock, and even raises the repurchase authorization for digital-asset securities to $2 billion; the other keeps buying, using the $36.4 million-plus raised via preferred shares to acquire 469 bitcoins, bringing its holdings to 25,000 coins..
But the problem is..
A discount doesn’t equal a bargain.. That assessment didn’t factor in debt and preferred stock; it looks only at a single discount figure and assumes it’s cheap to buy assets, which makes it easy to misread the direction; plus these companies no longer rely solely on coin hoarding to justify their valuations—one earns more than 89% of its second-quarter revenue from cloud infrastructure, another puts more than 85% of its held Ethereum to earn interest, and another claims it has received a network-wide share of block rewards exceeding 18%.
What’s really worth watching is another number: how many coins are there per share.. In a premium era, that number should keep moving upward each quarter, because the coins acquired through dilution exceed the dilution itself. In a discount era, it should stop.. That’s why this becomes intriguing—over the next few months, if they generally stop pushing that number higher, it suggests the loop is truly reversed, not just a temporary emotional move in the stock price..
Going one layer deeper, the direction of capital rotation is also shifting.. In the early years, the premium that existed for this type of stock came in part from a “gateway gap”: institutions couldn’t buy coins directly and could only buy their stock. Now, with more regulated funds and custody options available, that entry gap has been leveled. The market has started to price them based on business operations and financing terms—not solely based on the number of coins they hold..
Next, watch two things: first, whether the number of coins held per share has stopped increasing; second, whether stock price rises and falls are increasingly determined by other lines of business. If the second comes true, whether these companies still qualify as “crypto treasury companies” would be quite interesting..
