Morning News · 9/25 Blueleaf Diary Day19
Yesterday’s morning news: what I said was “Defend 82800–83300. If it breaks down, admit it was wrong.”
The close was 84397, the low was 82874. We held it—just one point short. I remember ✅.
This morning, the first thing I did after waking up was check the chart: 84,298. When last night it surged toward 85,000, I really wanted to chase—I even had my hand on the keyboard. In the end, I didn’t press. Why? The volume.
I counted the 4-hour chart: the recent two 4-hour periods’ volume dropped from 4800 shares to 2800 shares. The price is hovering above 84,000—that is textbook “volume contraction and sideways consolidation.” Such consolidation usually has two outcomes: either additional volume breaks upward, or there’s no follow-through and it gradually drifts lower. I won’t guess—I’ll wait.
I mentioned in this post yesterday a counter-mainstream view: the pullback is not a “golden pit.” Today I want to revise it halfway—it's not really a “pit,” but after holding the 83,000 line, this is more like a “foundation.” The difference between a pit and a foundation is whether someone is waiting below to catch you. Yesterday’s low at 82874 landed right on the lower edge of the defense zone I mentioned. The bulls with a long/short ratio of 1.15 used real money to catch it.
Here’s today’s market data:
· Current price 84,298 (+0.46%)
· Daily RSI 71—still in the strong zone, but just one step away from overbought
· MA7 at 83,552; price is above it, on day 3
· 10-day high 87,395, low 74,967—this range is wide like a strait
I’m only watching one level today: 84,800.
This is the lower edge of my short stop-loss zone from yesterday, and also the last gap before the 85,000 round-number level. If it surges above on expanding volume, it means the consolidation outcome is “break upward with added volume”—I’m looking for a retest toward 87,000’s prior high. If it just taps and falls on low volume, it suggests that the big bearish candle of 32,000 shares on the 28th hasn’t been digested yet. Then if it goes down and breaks below 83,000, the structure fails—I’ll admit I was wrong and get out. One sentence: above 84,800 I won’t chase longs; below it I won’t try to bottom-fish—I’ll just respond.
In terms of trading, today I plan to be a spectator who just watches the screen. Chasing longs at an RSI 71 location has poor odds. Shorting goes against the long/short ratio. In a consolidation phase, the most expensive mistake isn’t missing out—it’s an itch to trade.
Oh, about that last night poll on “whether someone catches a 2.5% pullback”: the people who said “catch it” outnumber those who said “don’t.” Let me remind you: catching is fine—just do it with a stop-loss. A naked-caught position will turn into blind faith on the day price breaks below 83,000. Faith doesn’t hold value in the market.
What are you planning to do today?
$BTC #BTC早报 #比特币 #BlueleafVSLettingGoBird
Yesterday’s morning news: what I said was “Defend 82800–83300. If it breaks down, admit it was wrong.”
The close was 84397, the low was 82874. We held it—just one point short. I remember ✅.
This morning, the first thing I did after waking up was check the chart: 84,298. When last night it surged toward 85,000, I really wanted to chase—I even had my hand on the keyboard. In the end, I didn’t press. Why? The volume.
I counted the 4-hour chart: the recent two 4-hour periods’ volume dropped from 4800 shares to 2800 shares. The price is hovering above 84,000—that is textbook “volume contraction and sideways consolidation.” Such consolidation usually has two outcomes: either additional volume breaks upward, or there’s no follow-through and it gradually drifts lower. I won’t guess—I’ll wait.
I mentioned in this post yesterday a counter-mainstream view: the pullback is not a “golden pit.” Today I want to revise it halfway—it's not really a “pit,” but after holding the 83,000 line, this is more like a “foundation.” The difference between a pit and a foundation is whether someone is waiting below to catch you. Yesterday’s low at 82874 landed right on the lower edge of the defense zone I mentioned. The bulls with a long/short ratio of 1.15 used real money to catch it.
Here’s today’s market data:
· Current price 84,298 (+0.46%)
· Daily RSI 71—still in the strong zone, but just one step away from overbought
· MA7 at 83,552; price is above it, on day 3
· 10-day high 87,395, low 74,967—this range is wide like a strait
I’m only watching one level today: 84,800.
This is the lower edge of my short stop-loss zone from yesterday, and also the last gap before the 85,000 round-number level. If it surges above on expanding volume, it means the consolidation outcome is “break upward with added volume”—I’m looking for a retest toward 87,000’s prior high. If it just taps and falls on low volume, it suggests that the big bearish candle of 32,000 shares on the 28th hasn’t been digested yet. Then if it goes down and breaks below 83,000, the structure fails—I’ll admit I was wrong and get out. One sentence: above 84,800 I won’t chase longs; below it I won’t try to bottom-fish—I’ll just respond.
In terms of trading, today I plan to be a spectator who just watches the screen. Chasing longs at an RSI 71 location has poor odds. Shorting goes against the long/short ratio. In a consolidation phase, the most expensive mistake isn’t missing out—it’s an itch to trade.
Oh, about that last night poll on “whether someone catches a 2.5% pullback”: the people who said “catch it” outnumber those who said “don’t.” Let me remind you: catching is fine—just do it with a stop-loss. A naked-caught position will turn into blind faith on the day price breaks below 83,000. Faith doesn’t hold value in the market.
What are you planning to do today?
$BTC #BTC早报 #比特币 #BlueleafVSLettingGoBird