#美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%
There’s a high chance of a rate hike in October—can Crypto hold up?
The probability of the Fed raising rates in October has already risen to 69.7%. The real trigger behind this isn’t the Fed suddenly turning hawkish; it’s that the U.S. September PMI jumped to 58.4, a multi-year high, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has moved back above 5%.
This is awkward. $BTC surged to around $87,000 just a couple of days ago, then quickly fell back to the $84,000 area, and $ETH has also dropped along with it. That earlier upswing was already pricing in expectations of rate cuts. Now the market is starting to reprice a different equation: the economy is too strong, inflation is still sticky—so why would the Fed rush to cut rates?
And this time it’s not just the PMI. Inside the Fed, some people have publicly supported continuing rate hikes. July PCE inflation is still at 3.7%.
I’m not too worried about the “69.7%” figure itself—after all, the odds have already been priced in by the market quite a bit. What’s really troublesome is whether, if the 10-year Treasury yield keeps pushing above 5%, BTC can regain and stand back above $87,000. If it can’t, this pullback won’t be just an emotional selloff—it will be about the market re-pricing high interest rates.
There’s a high chance of a rate hike in October—can Crypto hold up?
The probability of the Fed raising rates in October has already risen to 69.7%. The real trigger behind this isn’t the Fed suddenly turning hawkish; it’s that the U.S. September PMI jumped to 58.4, a multi-year high, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has moved back above 5%.
This is awkward. $BTC surged to around $87,000 just a couple of days ago, then quickly fell back to the $84,000 area, and $ETH has also dropped along with it. That earlier upswing was already pricing in expectations of rate cuts. Now the market is starting to reprice a different equation: the economy is too strong, inflation is still sticky—so why would the Fed rush to cut rates?
And this time it’s not just the PMI. Inside the Fed, some people have publicly supported continuing rate hikes. July PCE inflation is still at 3.7%.
I’m not too worried about the “69.7%” figure itself—after all, the odds have already been priced in by the market quite a bit. What’s really troublesome is whether, if the 10-year Treasury yield keeps pushing above 5%, BTC can regain and stand back above $87,000. If it can’t, this pullback won’t be just an emotional selloff—it will be about the market re-pricing high interest rates.