NOM saw a 35.321% surge within 24 hours. The current price is 0.002406, and at the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate is -0.00001890. This is a typical short-soldier funding structure.
Core view: A negative funding rate provides long positions with continuous offensive “war funds.” In the short term, the strong price momentum is likely to persist, but the high open interest signals that the risk of a prolonged positional battle has increased.
Evidence chain: The price rallied strongly during the day by 35.321%, and the funding rate is negative, meaning short-position holders must continuously pay fees to long holders. This creates a double squeeze: the price rise itself harms shorts, while the negative funding rate further increases their holding cost. Meanwhile, contract open interest is as high as 2912641731, indicating that “battlefield forces” (funding) are highly concentrated.
Strongest counter-evidence: Longs may take advantage of the war-funding advantage brought by the big price jump and the negative funding rate to realize profits and exit. If longs are concentrated in taking profit and leaving the market, the price could quickly pull back, and the support effect of the negative funding rate on price would weaken.
Second-order impact: Ongoing negative funding may force some shorts to close positions under funding pressure (capitulation), which could push the price higher. But if the price stalls, a deadlock between longs and shorts under high open interest is very likely to be broken, triggering a two-way cascade of liquidations. The costs will be borne jointly by the shorts who are holding on and the longs who chased the price upward.
Core view: A negative funding rate provides long positions with continuous offensive “war funds.” In the short term, the strong price momentum is likely to persist, but the high open interest signals that the risk of a prolonged positional battle has increased.
Evidence chain: The price rallied strongly during the day by 35.321%, and the funding rate is negative, meaning short-position holders must continuously pay fees to long holders. This creates a double squeeze: the price rise itself harms shorts, while the negative funding rate further increases their holding cost. Meanwhile, contract open interest is as high as 2912641731, indicating that “battlefield forces” (funding) are highly concentrated.
Strongest counter-evidence: Longs may take advantage of the war-funding advantage brought by the big price jump and the negative funding rate to realize profits and exit. If longs are concentrated in taking profit and leaving the market, the price could quickly pull back, and the support effect of the negative funding rate on price would weaken.
Second-order impact: Ongoing negative funding may force some shorts to close positions under funding pressure (capitulation), which could push the price higher. But if the price stalls, a deadlock between longs and shorts under high open interest is very likely to be broken, triggering a two-way cascade of liquidations. The costs will be borne jointly by the shorts who are holding on and the longs who chased the price upward.