$XAUT is down 4260 USD, 24-hour micro-drop of 1.34%, and the intraday high-low range is less than 50 USD. The market has been grinding in the small range of 4250 to 4300 for nearly two weeks, with neither bulls nor bears making a real move. $BTC is also relatively weak; 83572 USD is moving sideways, slipping less than 1% over 24 hours, and its trend is almost in sync with gold. The real focus is on the macro side: today, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above the 5% integer level, reaching a five-year high. On the same day, Fed Governor Warsh warned about the risk of inflation reemerging. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also holding steady at 101.25, at the upper edge of its five-year range. Following textbook logic, as real yields surge higher, the gold price should fall—but the real data shows that XAUT hasn’t even broken through the 4260 step over these two weeks. The support behind it comes from central banks’ “long money” line: according to the latest data from the World Gold Council, global central banks have been net adding gold for 14 consecutive months. China and Poland are the top two on the buying list for seven straight months. Meanwhile, last week the US CFTC disclosed that institutional long positions increased month-over-month by 3.2%, and leveraged funds also added to their positions in tandem. While textbook logic fails, the long money is quietly providing support. Next, watch whether the 4250 line can hold. If it breaks, there may be room for a further sell-off toward the 4200 integer level; if it stays above 4300, then we can discuss the 4350 level.

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