No.18 | Cycle Assessment: BULL (Confidence: medium) | Engine: RECOVERY | Alpha: +0.9100
Glassnode Week 38: BTC has reclaimed its full-year cost basis. The 30DMA has first crossed above the 50WMA (first time since 2023). LTH is back above the sell line, but the 7-day net realized profit is only $5.1B—more like light profit-taking than a full rotation. ETF buying demand has improved.
Key signals:
1. [onchain] 30DMA/50WMA golden cross: The 30DMA has regained the 50WMA for the first time since 2023. Prior historical crosses have all confirmed bull markets.
2. [onchain] Reclaim of cost basis: Price has moved back above the full-year cost basis that previously acted as resistance. The next major resistance is waiting to be broken.
3. [profitability] LTH profit-taking: LTH is back above the sell line, but the 7-day net realized profit is only $5.1B—closer to late 2023 than the peak.
4. [institutional] ETF and U.S. fund buying: ETF inflows are rising again, but the Coinbase premium is still negative—U.S. buying has not truly stepped in yet.
5. [macro] Four-year cycle failure: This pullback is only -30%, much shallower than the prior cycles (-70%+). The probability of revisiting the earlier lows should decline week by week.
Glassnode Week 38: BTC has reclaimed its full-year cost basis. The 30DMA has first crossed above the 50WMA (first time since 2023). LTH is back above the sell line, but the 7-day net realized profit is only $5.1B—more like light profit-taking than a full rotation. ETF buying demand has improved.
Key signals:
1. [onchain] 30DMA/50WMA golden cross: The 30DMA has regained the 50WMA for the first time since 2023. Prior historical crosses have all confirmed bull markets.
2. [onchain] Reclaim of cost basis: Price has moved back above the full-year cost basis that previously acted as resistance. The next major resistance is waiting to be broken.
3. [profitability] LTH profit-taking: LTH is back above the sell line, but the 7-day net realized profit is only $5.1B—closer to late 2023 than the peak.
4. [institutional] ETF and U.S. fund buying: ETF inflows are rising again, but the Coinbase premium is still negative—U.S. buying has not truly stepped in yet.
5. [macro] Four-year cycle failure: This pullback is only -30%, much shallower than the prior cycles (-70%+). The probability of revisiting the earlier lows should decline week by week.