#全球宏观布局
Didn’t work out—what do we do next?
Yesterday, the U.S.-Iran talks lasted 3 hours. Iran put forward conditions for comprehensive sanctions relief. The U.S. didn’t agree, and oil prices rebounded to above 90.
Oil prices are essentially the switch for the global market. When oil rises, U.S. stocks plunged and sold off hard today. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also hit a new high, reaching 5.1%. Gold slipped below 4300.
Federal Reserve Governor Bahl (a permanent voting member) spoke today and clearly supported further rate hikes to bring down inflation. In fact, the Fed’s view doesn’t matter much—what matters is still oil prices.
Tonight’s key meeting: whether the U.S.-Iran meeting yields results depends, in reality, on the behind-the-scenes deal between major players. The outcome is hard to predict, but be prepared for two scenarios—mainly based on oil prices.
1. If the U.S.-Iran talks make progress and oil falls back below 90
Continue holding positions
2. If the U.S.-China outcome doesn’t exceed expectations and the U.S.-Iran issue continues to stir, with oil returning above 90
- U.S. stocks
Take profit on the tech portion, especially leveraged positions (e.g., TQQQ, SOXL, MSTU, etc.). The recent rally has already been very profitable.
Focus on biotech and the financial sector, and build some defensive positioning. At the same time, don’t reduce overall exposure to U.S. stocks.
- Gold
If it breaks below 4300, start adding small amounts with light sizing—lay groundwork for post-election and next year’s rate cuts.
- A-shares
For the SSE Index at 3930, the 60-day moving average is difficult to hold; the downside target is around 3850.
The ChiNext and STAR Market are both firmly capped by the 60-day moving average as well.
Take profit on part of the short-term positions.
Also keep an eye on the dividend/“high cash-flow” sector. It has already pulled back recently. You can rotate positions between it and technology.
#BTC
As long as it stays below 80,000, continue systematic buying (DCA)—add only, never reduce.
If oil prices head back toward 100, cut all positions by 10–20%. A rate hike in December is likely.
If oil falls below 90, maintain positions and there will be no rate hike in December.
If it keeps oscillating back and forth, then control total position size, move less, and watch more.
Mid-Autumn and National Day are coming. Morgan Stanley wrote a report saying there will be a home-loan interest subsidy program released: 1%. It’s unclear whether this applies to existing properties (stock) or new property purchases (incremental).
If it can truly be implemented, it would be a major positive for consumption and real estate—and could trigger a broad market rally. But personally, I think the probability is not high, since the policy emphasis on real estate has already been weakened for a long time.
The above is only my personal viewpoint and does not constitute investment advice. Pay attention to risks.
Didn’t work out—what do we do next?
Yesterday, the U.S.-Iran talks lasted 3 hours. Iran put forward conditions for comprehensive sanctions relief. The U.S. didn’t agree, and oil prices rebounded to above 90.
Oil prices are essentially the switch for the global market. When oil rises, U.S. stocks plunged and sold off hard today. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also hit a new high, reaching 5.1%. Gold slipped below 4300.
Federal Reserve Governor Bahl (a permanent voting member) spoke today and clearly supported further rate hikes to bring down inflation. In fact, the Fed’s view doesn’t matter much—what matters is still oil prices.
Tonight’s key meeting: whether the U.S.-Iran meeting yields results depends, in reality, on the behind-the-scenes deal between major players. The outcome is hard to predict, but be prepared for two scenarios—mainly based on oil prices.
1. If the U.S.-Iran talks make progress and oil falls back below 90
Continue holding positions
2. If the U.S.-China outcome doesn’t exceed expectations and the U.S.-Iran issue continues to stir, with oil returning above 90
- U.S. stocks
Take profit on the tech portion, especially leveraged positions (e.g., TQQQ, SOXL, MSTU, etc.). The recent rally has already been very profitable.
Focus on biotech and the financial sector, and build some defensive positioning. At the same time, don’t reduce overall exposure to U.S. stocks.
- Gold
If it breaks below 4300, start adding small amounts with light sizing—lay groundwork for post-election and next year’s rate cuts.
- A-shares
For the SSE Index at 3930, the 60-day moving average is difficult to hold; the downside target is around 3850.
The ChiNext and STAR Market are both firmly capped by the 60-day moving average as well.
Take profit on part of the short-term positions.
Also keep an eye on the dividend/“high cash-flow” sector. It has already pulled back recently. You can rotate positions between it and technology.
#BTC
As long as it stays below 80,000, continue systematic buying (DCA)—add only, never reduce.
If oil prices head back toward 100, cut all positions by 10–20%. A rate hike in December is likely.
If oil falls below 90, maintain positions and there will be no rate hike in December.
If it keeps oscillating back and forth, then control total position size, move less, and watch more.
Mid-Autumn and National Day are coming. Morgan Stanley wrote a report saying there will be a home-loan interest subsidy program released: 1%. It’s unclear whether this applies to existing properties (stock) or new property purchases (incremental).
If it can truly be implemented, it would be a major positive for consumption and real estate—and could trigger a broad market rally. But personally, I think the probability is not high, since the policy emphasis on real estate has already been weakened for a long time.
The above is only my personal viewpoint and does not constitute investment advice. Pay attention to risks.