September 24 Market Analysis:
Bitcoin rebounded about 37% from its mid-August low, Ethereum rebounded about 46%, and the total market capitalization once again moved above $3 trillion. In the near term, price action has been driven by a combination of spot ETF fund inflows and short-covering, but on September 23 there was a pullback due to rising U.S. Treasury yields, a rebound in oil prices, and the U.S. PMI coming in above expectations. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $84,000–$84,400 and Ethereum around $2,660–$2,690.
Market Overview:
Over the past week, Bitcoin rose by about 10%–14%, while Ethereum gained about 10%–15%. On September 21, Bitcoin reached approximately $87,000–$87,300 intraday, a high since January; it then pulled back. The total market capitalization fell from around $3.0–$3.06 trillion to about $2.88 trillion, while Bitcoin’s dominance was roughly 56%–59%. The Fear & Greed Index is still in the greed zone (around 71).
Drivers include: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for four consecutive days totaling about $2.3 billion (with the daily inflow of nearly $1 billion on September 21, one of the largest in the past 11 months; another inflow of about $715 million on September 22); Ethereum spot ETFs are seeing inflows as well; shorts in derivatives have been squeezed. Pullbacks are related to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returning to around 5%, a rebound in oil prices, and cooling risk appetite.
Important news to note:
1. Institutional fund reflow: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw cumulative inflows of about $2.3 billion over four days, with no single fund showing net outflows; Ethereum spot ETFs saw inflows of about $162 million on September 22. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) increased its Bitcoin holdings again. BitMine continues to accumulate Ethereum, and its holdings are approaching 6 million coins.
2. Macroeconomics and policy: The Federal Reserve previously raised rates by 25 basis points. The U.S. September flash composite PMI rose to 58.4, indicating accelerating growth, lifting yields and weighing on risk assets. The market is watching the possible summit between Trump and Xi Jinping and expectations for year-end trade arrangements. China’s central bank reiterated that virtual cryptocurrencies do not have the status of legal tender. The SEC granted conditional exemptions for tokenized U.S. stock trading; relevant platforms may disclose operating plans in the next quarter.
3. Industry updates: CME plans to launch Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Uniswap (UNI) futures on October 19 (subject to regulatory approval). BitMEX officially stopped trading services on September 23. Related Ethereum transfers from the FTX/Alameda liquidation to market makers. Solana and Ethereum ecosystem conferences are happening in clusters (ETHTokyo, ETHGlobal Tokyo, etc.). Some altcoin ETF registration filings are about to take effect.
4. On-chain and derivatives: In the initial phase of the rally, short liquidations dominated; later, longs also got liquidated. In options, there was a relatively large-scale Bitcoin options expiry on Friday, which could amplify volatility.
Bitcoin market analysis
Price and structure: After the September 21 peak of about $87,250–$87,360, the price pulled back; the September 23 low touched about $83,550–$83,860, and it is currently consolidating above $84,000. The weekly chart remains clearly strong, with price above the medium-term moving averages. The 24-hour range is relatively large (about $83,990–$87,251).
Key levels:
- Resistance: around $85,000 (turned into resistance after a recent pullback), around $87,300 (after a breakout, looking toward $90,000).
- Support: around $83,700 (short term), $82,000–$83,000 (breakout of the range)
RSI has fallen from overbought but still leans bullish. The ETF cost zone around $81,700–$82,000 forms an important psychological support. As long as the ETF maintains sizable net inflows, the structure remains bullish. If yields continue rising and funds rotate to outflows, it may retest $80,000. In the short term, it looks more like consolidation after a rapid run-up rather than a trend reversal.
Ethereum market analysis
Price and structure: The weekly gain at one point exceeded Bitcoin’s, but after multiple rejections around $2,780–$2,800, it pulled back to $2,650–$2,690. It is still above key support levels. Network active addresses and trading volume have not expanded in sync with price; open interest remains relatively stable, and leverage participation is not high.
Key levels:
- Resistance: around $2,720, around $2,800.
- Support: around $2,650, around $2,60
Fundamentals and flows: Spot ETF inflows have been continuous, offsetting earlier outflows. Institutional buyers (e.g., BitMine) provide medium-term demand. In the short term, if price cannot break through $2,800 effectively, it may continue consolidating in the $2,620–$2,800 range. If it breaks below $2,626, watch around $2,540. Q4 upgrades and ecosystem activities remain key medium-term focuses.
The Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is coming up—wishing everyone a Happy Mid-Autumn Festival and a happy reunion with family! This market doesn’t lack opportunities; position yourself and act when the time is right.