BTC pulled back this time from around 87,000. In the short term, the move really has weakened. On top of that, with U.S. and Japanese Treasury yields rising together, concerns about funding costs and the possibility of further rate hikes are also intensifying.
My view is: in the short term there’s still downside pullback pressure, but the repair structure on the daily and weekly charts is still intact for now. Next, whether it can hold support matters more than guessing whether it will go up or down immediately.
First, let’s talk about the hourly chart.
The price has already fallen below the short-term moving averages, and the RSI is back around 35. During the main drop last night, selling volume clearly increased; however, the rebound afterwards didn’t come with enough volume. That suggests the buying interest is not strong enough at the moment.
So, 84,600—85,100 is the rebound resistance zone I’m focusing on first. If this area can’t be reclaimed, the short-term trend will still be relatively weak; you can’t just see a single bullish candle and assume the correction is over.
Now look at the 4-hour chart.
It currently looks more like the pullback after an upmove is deepening. 83,450 is the immediate low. If it breaks down and the rebound afterward still can’t be reclaimed, then the key area shifts to 82,200—82,800. In this region, the 4-hour moving averages and the prior swing high form support; it’s an important area for judging whether the pullback will continue to expand.
For now, the daily chart isn’t as bad as the hourly chart.
The price is still above the 20-day exponential moving average. That line is currently around 79,900. In other words, the short-term has already weakened, but the daily uptrend structure hasn’t been completely broken.
If it pulls back to 80,000—81,100 afterward, pay special attention to buy support/acceptance there. If it holds, there’s room for further upside after consolidation. If the daily chart keeps closing below key levels, you’ll need to clearly lower your expectations for the medium-term trend.
The weekly chart is still in the process of repair.
Last week’s close already moved above the 50-week moving average. This week it also pushed through the prior high near 82,800. However, this week’s K-line hasn’t closed yet; whether the breakout level can be held needs confirmation at 08:00 Beijing time on September 28. An intraday breakout and a weekly confirmation are two different things.
For this pullback, I’m also paying close attention to the bond market.
In the Asia morning session on September 24, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.11%, Japan’s 10-year is about 3.06%, and Japan’s 30-year is about 4.13%.
As yields rise, holding bonds becomes more attractive, and the market’s financing costs may rise further. For an asset like BTC with high volatility, capital will be more selective.
The policy backdrop is also relatively tight. The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, and the Bank of Japan announced on September 18 that it would raise its policy rate to about 1.25%, which takes effect today.
Also watch the yen on Japan’s side. If yields rise while the yen suddenly and rapidly appreciates, trades that borrow yen to invest overseas assets may face greater pressure to close positions. However, by looking only at Japan government bond yields rising, you still can’t conclude that arbitrage funds have fully retreated.
External news is also tugging at the market. Developments in the Middle East and continued high oil prices add inflation pressure, while news that U.S.-China trade relations are improving helps risk appetite. In the end, how these factors affect BTC depends on the actual response of oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and bond yields.
There’s also support from the capital/flows side.
Farside data shows that U.S. spot BTC ETFs had net inflows of about $999 million on September 21 and about $715 million on September 22. This indicates there were still quite noticeable buy orders in the first two complete trading days.
But as of the time of the query, the data for the 23rd hasn’t been fully updated. You can’t judge the whole day’s inflows from partial data, and you also can’t directly assume that buying is still ongoing today.
Next, I mainly look at three possible paths:
• The rebound always can’t be reclaimed to 84,600—85,100: continue to treat it as weak-range consolidation. First, watch 83,450; if it’s lost, then focus on 82,200—82,800.
• The 4-hour chart reclaims 85,100, and a retest can still hold: that would count as a short-term improvement. Then watch 86,200 and 87,250—87,400.
• The 4-hour chart loses 82,200, while bond yields continue to surge higher: the risk of a larger pullback increases. The key area to watch is 80,000—81,100.
For something to be considered “holding above” or “breaking below,” you need to combine the close of the corresponding time frame and subsequent retest confirmation. A single wick/piercing move isn’t enough.
Also, the U.S. PCE data for September 30 at 20:30 Beijing time is worth watching. If inflation again comes in above expectations, rate expectations and BTC’s走势 could both be readjusted. The earlier assessment above will also change as these conditions evolve.
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis