$ETH

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Black Swan, are you really coming?

In the previous post, I mentioned:
Predict that the Black Swan will arrive around the 25th.

The premise is: “do not break the new high.”

Yesterday, a double top formed, and the price then dipped toward around 2633.

2633 is the 0.618 level for the small 5th wave within wave 1 of the larger cycle.

Based on the current trend, I’m forecasting the larger cycle!

The ideas are as follows:

If the current double top forms validly,

take 2633 as the peak of downwave 1,
and take 2806.76 as the start of downwave 1.

Today, it will most likely rebound around 2720.

Around 2720 is the neckline zone + the Fibonacci 0.5 level.

If it gets hit and drops down instead,

then that evening we’ll need to move through a selling/hammering wave.

When the candle closes and breaks below 2633.
Targets:
1.618 level 2567
2.000 level 2527
Two levels.

For the 4th-wave rebound, if it fails to break the 1.00 level at 2633,

then it will drop down to the 2.618 level at 2353 and move sideways.

Then do an ABC wave and make a new low around 2155.

Then we move into the larger wave 3, as mentioned in the previous post.

Bonus: today’s intraday short orders:

Direction: ↓
Aggressive: 2718
Add position: 2736-2742
Stop loss: 2757
Suggested take profit: 2701-2682-2661-2638

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Note:
All the projection prerequisites: 2806.76 must not be broken.
If it’s broken, then all assumptions are invalid.
Start over from scratch.
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#ETH