#纳指创历史新高
Inflation Pressure Rising in the U.S. 🔝
Fed Chair Collins Warns: Inflation Risks Are Increasing, Policy Must Remain Restrictive
In a post dated September 22, Boston Fed President Collins said she supports the Fed’s decision on September 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points and lift the target range to 3.75%–4%. She believes the probability that inflation will remain significantly above the 2% target is rising; U.S. inflation has already exceeded the target by more than five years, and the progress made in cooling has not met expectations.

Collins noted that the labor market has recently improved, but energy prices, geopolitical conflicts, and supply-chain disruptions could still add upward pressure on prices. If supply shocks keep inflation above target for the long term, the Fed would need to maintain sufficiently restrictive policy to prevent inflation expectations from rising again.


The OECD Raises Global Inflation Forecast, Expects the Fed to Hike Once More This Year
The OECD released its latest Economic Outlook, raising its inflation forecasts for the G20 for this year and next year to 4.1% and 3.6%, respectively, from 4.0% and 3.1% previously. Its global economic growth forecast this year was raised from 2.8% to 2.9%, while next year was cut from 3.1% to 3.0%. The OECD expects the Fed to raise rates once more before year-end. The euro area, Australia, and South Korea may further make small additional hikes, while Japan continues to tighten policy.

The OECD projects U.S. growth of 2.2% and 2.1% for this year and next year, respectively—both higher than the June forecast. Investment in AI infrastructure offsets part of the impact of weak consumption, while energy costs are expected to restrain next year’s growth.


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The main shock is core CPI—the core consumer price index—excluding volatility in energy prices and food prices. The trend of inflation is the key!
$BZ

$CL