Bitcoin climbs above 86,000, and the site is full of cheers as shorts get liquidated. First, let me pour some cold water: the real driving force behind this rally may not be leverage.
Two data points look off. The funding rate is only 0.0044%—longs are not crowded at all. If this were a hard squeeze fueled by leverage, this number wouldn’t be so quiet. Also, the buying isn’t coming from the derivatives market: Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $999 million on Monday, the largest day since 2026. BlackRock’s IBIT alone took in $381 million. The money came in through the channel from the stock market.
So who is it moving in sync with? Look at another market: at the same time, US AI stocks are also continuing to rise.
That’s the key. BTC and AI stocks are burning the same fuel—global risk assets are lifting valuations together on the same liquidity expectations. So what it proves isn’t “the crypto narrative is back,” but rather “crypto is just the most resilient one within risk assets.” If you chase it as an independent move, you end up chasing someone else’s tempo.
Next, watch two things: whether the US AI sector softens first, and whether the US dollar strengthens. If both sides turn against the trade—yet BTC still manages to set new highs on its own, and the funding rate spikes together—then I’d admit my call was wrong. Because in that case, this rally really would be supported by crypto-specific leverage.
Two data points look off. The funding rate is only 0.0044%—longs are not crowded at all. If this were a hard squeeze fueled by leverage, this number wouldn’t be so quiet. Also, the buying isn’t coming from the derivatives market: Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $999 million on Monday, the largest day since 2026. BlackRock’s IBIT alone took in $381 million. The money came in through the channel from the stock market.
So who is it moving in sync with? Look at another market: at the same time, US AI stocks are also continuing to rise.
That’s the key. BTC and AI stocks are burning the same fuel—global risk assets are lifting valuations together on the same liquidity expectations. So what it proves isn’t “the crypto narrative is back,” but rather “crypto is just the most resilient one within risk assets.” If you chase it as an independent move, you end up chasing someone else’s tempo.
Next, watch two things: whether the US AI sector softens first, and whether the US dollar strengthens. If both sides turn against the trade—yet BTC still manages to set new highs on its own, and the funding rate spikes together—then I’d admit my call was wrong. Because in that case, this rally really would be supported by crypto-specific leverage.
