$1.7 billion flows in, yet Bitcoin hits the brakes: the bulls’ hard fight is coming
For Bitcoin on the short term, I’m leaning bearish. ETF inflows look striking, but after the rally and subsequent pullback, the bulls still need to prove that there’s follow-through—someone to keep the momentum going.
As of the latest check at 10:30:30 on September 24 Beijing time, CoinGecko’s newest quote is $84,097, down 2.86% over the past 24 hours. Farside shows that US Bitcoin spot ETFs had total net inflows of $1.7137 billion across September 21 and 22, while September 23 has not yet been fully disclosed. Buying pressure from the past couple of days can’t be directly converted into today’s upward move.
The pressure point is interest rates. S&P Global reported on the 23rd that the initial reading of the US Composite PMI rose to 58.4, and cost pressures rose in parallel. My interpretation is: the hotter the economy, the harder it is for the market to comfortably bet on looser funding conditions—and a rally after a pop is also more vulnerable to shocks.
The bulls, of course, have reasons to push back. In addition to ETF inflows, Scott Melker argued in his September 21 original piece that higher highs and a return to the 50-week moving average imply that the bearish-market structure has been broken. However, he also clearly acknowledges that even after the trend improves, there could still be a notable pullback.
My bearish tilt is based on relatively weak evidence. Using $84,097 as the baseline, I will observe until 10:30:30 on September 27 and compare the end-of-period price over the 72-hour window. If, during that time, price breaks back above the verified 24-hour high of $87,251, I will撤销 (revoke) this assessment.
Whether the bulls can reclaim lost ground will be answered by what price does next. #AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会 #BTC
For Bitcoin on the short term, I’m leaning bearish. ETF inflows look striking, but after the rally and subsequent pullback, the bulls still need to prove that there’s follow-through—someone to keep the momentum going.
As of the latest check at 10:30:30 on September 24 Beijing time, CoinGecko’s newest quote is $84,097, down 2.86% over the past 24 hours. Farside shows that US Bitcoin spot ETFs had total net inflows of $1.7137 billion across September 21 and 22, while September 23 has not yet been fully disclosed. Buying pressure from the past couple of days can’t be directly converted into today’s upward move.
The pressure point is interest rates. S&P Global reported on the 23rd that the initial reading of the US Composite PMI rose to 58.4, and cost pressures rose in parallel. My interpretation is: the hotter the economy, the harder it is for the market to comfortably bet on looser funding conditions—and a rally after a pop is also more vulnerable to shocks.
The bulls, of course, have reasons to push back. In addition to ETF inflows, Scott Melker argued in his September 21 original piece that higher highs and a return to the 50-week moving average imply that the bearish-market structure has been broken. However, he also clearly acknowledges that even after the trend improves, there could still be a notable pullback.
My bearish tilt is based on relatively weak evidence. Using $84,097 as the baseline, I will observe until 10:30:30 on September 27 and compare the end-of-period price over the 72-hour window. If, during that time, price breaks back above the verified 24-hour high of $87,251, I will撤销 (revoke) this assessment.
Whether the bulls can reclaim lost ground will be answered by what price does next. #AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会 #BTC