[$ 180 billion options expire Friday — this isn’t a drill]
On Friday, nearly $18 billion worth of crypto options will expire, with call options making up the bulk. Market makers have to buy futures or spot to hedge, which in itself pushes prices higher. But when the options expire and the hedging orders are removed, the support disappears right along with them.
Back in 2017, I’ve seen this playbook. Big players issue options, collect the premium, and at the same time they control the market to drive the price so the options look increasingly valuable. Before expiration, they hold the price there to make it seem like things are going their way. Then once the expiration date passes, everything gets dumped. The packaging changes a few layers, but the cutting method doesn’t.
Someone asked me what this has to do with me. Honestly, it matters a lot. The way market makers and institutions compete here means their hedging actions directly affect short-term price volatility. What we small retail traders can do is recognize the script of this show—don’t chase gains before options expire, and don’t think you can run faster than market makers. For friends who already hold positions, set your stop-loss over the next couple of days—don’t get swept out by the volatility.
As for the FTX wallets transferring $ 75M ETH to Wintermute… nobody knows what they’re planning to do. But once this kind of news comes out, you should have a mental hook in place: someone has the cards in their hands, and they haven’t cashed them out yet.
The core point in one sentence: this round of choppy price action isn’t the market choosing a direction—it’s big players squaring accounts. Watch the show, don’t become part of it.
If you have ETH, what’s your mindset these days? Are you planning to ride it out, or to withdraw first?
On Friday, nearly $18 billion worth of crypto options will expire, with call options making up the bulk. Market makers have to buy futures or spot to hedge, which in itself pushes prices higher. But when the options expire and the hedging orders are removed, the support disappears right along with them.
Back in 2017, I’ve seen this playbook. Big players issue options, collect the premium, and at the same time they control the market to drive the price so the options look increasingly valuable. Before expiration, they hold the price there to make it seem like things are going their way. Then once the expiration date passes, everything gets dumped. The packaging changes a few layers, but the cutting method doesn’t.
Someone asked me what this has to do with me. Honestly, it matters a lot. The way market makers and institutions compete here means their hedging actions directly affect short-term price volatility. What we small retail traders can do is recognize the script of this show—don’t chase gains before options expire, and don’t think you can run faster than market makers. For friends who already hold positions, set your stop-loss over the next couple of days—don’t get swept out by the volatility.
As for the FTX wallets transferring $ 75M ETH to Wintermute… nobody knows what they’re planning to do. But once this kind of news comes out, you should have a mental hook in place: someone has the cards in their hands, and they haven’t cashed them out yet.
The core point in one sentence: this round of choppy price action isn’t the market choosing a direction—it’s big players squaring accounts. Watch the show, don’t become part of it.
If you have ETH, what’s your mindset these days? Are you planning to ride it out, or to withdraw first?