Deep Tide TechFlow message. On September 24, according to Jin10 Data, the latest CME “Fed Watch” shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the current 3.75%–4.00% interest-rate range unchanged at its October meeting is 30.3%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has risen to 69.7%.
Looking ahead at the subsequent policy path, market expectations put the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged through December at only 6.5%. The probability of a total 25-basis-point rate hike within the year is 38.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is as high as 54.8%.
Looking ahead at the subsequent policy path, market expectations put the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged through December at only 6.5%. The probability of a total 25-basis-point rate hike within the year is 38.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is as high as 54.8%.