Tonight’s Costco earnings: shares fall to an 8-month low—are membership fees the only lifeline?

On the early morning of September 25 (Beijing time), Costco will release its FY2026 Q4 results. This could be the most “awkward” report it has issued in recent years—while the numbers won’t look bad, the stock price has already fallen to a 8-month low ahead of the announcement.

Earnings outlook: growth remains steady

Wall Street consensus expects Q4 revenue of about $94.8 billion, up roughly 10% year over year; adjusted EPS of about $6.53, up about 11%. The company previously disclosed Q4 net sales of $93.9 billion (up 11.3% year over year), with same-store sales up 9.4%, and up 6.7% after excluding gasoline and FX effects.

Key focus: membership fees, not how much inventory is sold

Costco’s profit core has never been about markups on goods, but rather about membership fees. In Q3, membership fee revenue was $1.37 billion (up 10.7% year over year). Paid members totaled 82.9 million, including 41.2 million executive members (up 9.6% year over year). The renewal rate for U.S. and Canada reached 92.2%. What needs to be confirmed in Q4 is whether renewal rates remain stable and whether executive-member penetration can continue. If membership metrics weaken, the market will not hesitate to reprice “overvalued retail” as “mature retail.”

An overlooked variable: gasoline

Rising gasoline prices are a double-edged sword for Costco. On the one hand, higher fuel prices attract more consumers to fill up in-store, boosting foot traffic. On the other hand, gas stations’ own profit margins get squeezed. Freedom Capital’s chief strategist Jay Woods specifically pointed out that “the impact of higher oil prices on margins” is one of the key observations in this earnings report. In Q3, the company reported record gasoline volume. Whether this trend continues into Q4—and how it affects gross margins—deserves attention.

Stock price reaction: historical average volatility is 2.73%

After Costco’s recent earnings report, the stock’s average move has been about ±2.73%. The current share price is around $895, with a technical support level at about $850—roughly 5% below the current price. After the 2025 fiscal year Q4 earnings beat expectations, the stock fell by about 3% the next day, and the year-to-date gain was wiped out to zero. This historical pattern reminds us that Costco’s “good earnings” and “good stock price” are not always the same thing.

Trading takeaway

Costco’s topline data is basically already locked in; what the market is truly pricing is the membership metrics and profit margins. If membership data is strong and management signals special dividends, the stock could receive short-term support. If profit margins are squeezed by gasoline