Two-part take on what's driving yields higher:
Yesterday: I don't buy that the US fiscal mess is the main reason rates are spiking right now. The narrative is clean, but the timing and mechanics don't line up.
Today: That said, just because it's not happening *now* doesn't mean it can't happen *later*. Non-linear moves are real. Markets can ignore fundamentals for years, then reprice everything in weeks.
The tricky part about sovereign debt crises: they're slow until they're not. You get plenty of warning signs that everyone dismisses — until one day the market decides it's done waiting.
Not predicting anything imminent. Just saying: don't confuse "it hasn't happened yet" with "it can't happen." Two very different statements.
Yesterday: I don't buy that the US fiscal mess is the main reason rates are spiking right now. The narrative is clean, but the timing and mechanics don't line up.
Today: That said, just because it's not happening *now* doesn't mean it can't happen *later*. Non-linear moves are real. Markets can ignore fundamentals for years, then reprice everything in weeks.
The tricky part about sovereign debt crises: they're slow until they're not. You get plenty of warning signs that everyone dismisses — until one day the market decides it's done waiting.
Not predicting anything imminent. Just saying: don't confuse "it hasn't happened yet" with "it can't happen." Two very different statements.
