In a long-term environment of “high inflation + high interest rates,” an across-the-board “rate-hike bull market” is almost impossible to occur.
You can look to the 1970s for comparison: the best performers were only certain futures markets. Those that did well were typically commodities and hard assets that could directly hedge inflation, with low supply elasticity—such as crude oil, gold, etc.
Coming back to today, the situation going forward is basically similar to the 1970s. People say long-term high inflation, accompanied by long-term high interest rates.
In this scenario, the crypto market—such as BTC—is only benefiting in stages from an “anti-inflation” narrative, especially when inflation expectations run out of control and fiat currency credit is damaged. But fundamentally, the crypto market is still a risk asset, so it is still difficult for it to become a stable long-term hedging instrument like gold or crude oil.
In a long-term high-interest-rate environment, BTC’s likely path going forward is characterized by extreme volatility, with so-called bull-bear switches occurring even more frequently. There is almost no possibility of a long, one-direction bull market like in history.
So, I said earlier: don’t obsess over bull or bear markets, and don’t make a big deal out of cycles. And don’t get addicted to grand narratives.
Trade the volatility.
#AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会 $BTC #BTC走势分析
You can look to the 1970s for comparison: the best performers were only certain futures markets. Those that did well were typically commodities and hard assets that could directly hedge inflation, with low supply elasticity—such as crude oil, gold, etc.
Coming back to today, the situation going forward is basically similar to the 1970s. People say long-term high inflation, accompanied by long-term high interest rates.
In this scenario, the crypto market—such as BTC—is only benefiting in stages from an “anti-inflation” narrative, especially when inflation expectations run out of control and fiat currency credit is damaged. But fundamentally, the crypto market is still a risk asset, so it is still difficult for it to become a stable long-term hedging instrument like gold or crude oil.
In a long-term high-interest-rate environment, BTC’s likely path going forward is characterized by extreme volatility, with so-called bull-bear switches occurring even more frequently. There is almost no possibility of a long, one-direction bull market like in history.
So, I said earlier: don’t obsess over bull or bear markets, and don’t make a big deal out of cycles. And don’t get addicted to grand narratives.
Trade the volatility.
#AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会 $BTC #BTC走势分析