Iran claims it successfully used remote missile technology to target and concentrate U.S. aircraft carrier operations; at the same time, reports from the Strait of Hormuz indicate a more serious incident of attacks on merchant ships. Iran has clearly issued a “cross-border retaliation threat” in response to the United States’ aviation-related secondary sanctions.

All the signs suggest that my earlier view—that short-term expectations for a more optimistic Iran-U.S. relationship should be downgraded—was correct. Moreover, it is clear that the “uncontrollable” factors under Iran’s ruling government are even higher. This means Pakistan should increase its efforts to mediate with Iran.

If the current reports are true—especially if Iran’s attack on a U.S. aircraft carrier was successful—this challenging offensive is indeed detrimental to the current U.S.-Iran mediation trend, raising the threshold for mediation and for resuming talks.

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