Over the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated positions worth $507 million, and 121,043 people were forcibly liquidated
$BTC is now at $84,608, down 1.94% over 24 hours. The intraday high is 87,278, and the low is 83,864. The number 85,000 was lost today—the 85.0k integer has been taken out. I broke down the liquidation orders: this time isn’t caused by someone newly opening short positions. It’s the longs getting knocked out by themselves.
Over the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated positions totaling $507 million: longs $360 million, shorts $147 million, a 2.45x difference, with 121,043 accounts liquidated. When the longs get liquidated, the trading proceeds sell the contracts to close the positions—this sell order doesn’t care about price, and it doesn’t involve judgment.
The harshest 4-hour stretch: of the $302 million, 93.55% were longs getting hit. In the most recent hour it dropped to $34.028 million, with longs still at 73.2%—the big knock-out wave has passed.
Breakdown by exchange over these 4 hours: Binance has $141 million, and 93.39% were longs getting hit. Interestingly, on HTX, of the $0.878 million, 88.92% were actually shorts getting hit. In the same candlestick, most places are losing on the long side, while HTX is losing on the short side—so the order flow there is messy.
Most important: Binance’s $BTC position size. In 24 hours it fell from 109,119 to 101,770—down 6.74%. When it drops, the positions are being reduced, which indicates they’re closing out liquidations rather than new short positions being opened—the mechanical selling stops after the positions are squared off.
Looking at long/short ratios by accounts: according to position size, longs vs shorts is 1.8365; long positions are 64.75%. By number of retail accounts, it’s only 1.0700—so the side with more money is still on the long side, while the side with more people is quickly moving toward a near 50/50 split. Funding rate is 0.0043%/8h, below the benchmark—so longs aren’t crowded. The active buy/sell volume ratio is 0.9245, with selling pressure outweighing buying.
From the technical levels: the current price has broken below the 1h MA20 (86,005) by 1.64%, and RSI14 is only 33.10. The daily MA20 is at 79,506, and the current price is still above it. The short-term setup is bad, but the medium-term trendline hasn’t been broken.
So for this segment, I slightly lean toward the short side—but that’s not the same as “it fell so it’s bearish.” The ones getting hit are the longs, and positions are decreasing. Put together, it suggests this move is driven by liquidation rather than a brand-new trend. I’m not willing to just let go: RSI 33 and the 1h moving averages are in a bearish arrangement.
So I’m not watching price—I’m only watching two numbers: whether Binance’s $BTC position size is still decreasing, and whether, in the last hour, the side getting hit is longs or shorts. If position size turns from decreasing back to increasing, and the side getting hit shifts back to shorts—that’s when a truly new direction shows up. Then I’ll immediately change my stance.
$BTC $ETH
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.
$BTC is now at $84,608, down 1.94% over 24 hours. The intraday high is 87,278, and the low is 83,864. The number 85,000 was lost today—the 85.0k integer has been taken out. I broke down the liquidation orders: this time isn’t caused by someone newly opening short positions. It’s the longs getting knocked out by themselves.
Over the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated positions totaling $507 million: longs $360 million, shorts $147 million, a 2.45x difference, with 121,043 accounts liquidated. When the longs get liquidated, the trading proceeds sell the contracts to close the positions—this sell order doesn’t care about price, and it doesn’t involve judgment.
The harshest 4-hour stretch: of the $302 million, 93.55% were longs getting hit. In the most recent hour it dropped to $34.028 million, with longs still at 73.2%—the big knock-out wave has passed.
Breakdown by exchange over these 4 hours: Binance has $141 million, and 93.39% were longs getting hit. Interestingly, on HTX, of the $0.878 million, 88.92% were actually shorts getting hit. In the same candlestick, most places are losing on the long side, while HTX is losing on the short side—so the order flow there is messy.
Most important: Binance’s $BTC position size. In 24 hours it fell from 109,119 to 101,770—down 6.74%. When it drops, the positions are being reduced, which indicates they’re closing out liquidations rather than new short positions being opened—the mechanical selling stops after the positions are squared off.
Looking at long/short ratios by accounts: according to position size, longs vs shorts is 1.8365; long positions are 64.75%. By number of retail accounts, it’s only 1.0700—so the side with more money is still on the long side, while the side with more people is quickly moving toward a near 50/50 split. Funding rate is 0.0043%/8h, below the benchmark—so longs aren’t crowded. The active buy/sell volume ratio is 0.9245, with selling pressure outweighing buying.
From the technical levels: the current price has broken below the 1h MA20 (86,005) by 1.64%, and RSI14 is only 33.10. The daily MA20 is at 79,506, and the current price is still above it. The short-term setup is bad, but the medium-term trendline hasn’t been broken.
So for this segment, I slightly lean toward the short side—but that’s not the same as “it fell so it’s bearish.” The ones getting hit are the longs, and positions are decreasing. Put together, it suggests this move is driven by liquidation rather than a brand-new trend. I’m not willing to just let go: RSI 33 and the 1h moving averages are in a bearish arrangement.
So I’m not watching price—I’m only watching two numbers: whether Binance’s $BTC position size is still decreasing, and whether, in the last hour, the side getting hit is longs or shorts. If position size turns from decreasing back to increasing, and the side getting hit shifts back to shorts—that’s when a truly new direction shows up. Then I’ll immediately change my stance.
$BTC $ETH
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.