#比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高
87k shares through this wall, but you can't find any trades in the data.
▪️83,000–86,000 pins about 1.07 million BTC; the heaviest bucket is $85,000—didn't move for 30 days
▪️The seller risk ratio fell to 7 bps/day (Aug peak 16 bps). The long-term holders' profit share dropped from 88% to 47%
▪️U.S. spot ETF cost basis is about $86,000; it has stayed below that level for 228 straight trading days. Paper losses shrank from $18 billion to $3.9 billion
Why this is called a “wall” is because, by default, someone above is waiting to sell. These 1.07 million BTC haven't moved—what the price is crossing isn't turnover, but a line of unrealized P/L, simply shifting from loss to breakeven.
Before the wall was hit, I wrote about it. Glassnode said: “If it is touched, short-covering may force price to pass through quickly.” After it was breached, liquidation of over $800 million in shorts did happen—but it was compelled buying.
Voluntary buying is happening in the ETF: on 9/21, the single-day net inflow was $999 million, the largest in 11 months. The last time it was bigger was 2025-10-06, with $1.2 billion inflow—that month BTC set a new all-time high at $126,000. So far this year, however, ETFs are still net outflowing $464 million.
My BTC DCA position stays put. Watch three things: whether $86,000 can hold, whether the seller risk ratio returns to 16 bps, and whether ETF flows have broken.
The wall has been crossed—does that mean nobody above is selling, or is it still not their turn to sell?
#比特币 $BTC
87k shares through this wall, but you can't find any trades in the data.
▪️83,000–86,000 pins about 1.07 million BTC; the heaviest bucket is $85,000—didn't move for 30 days
▪️The seller risk ratio fell to 7 bps/day (Aug peak 16 bps). The long-term holders' profit share dropped from 88% to 47%
▪️U.S. spot ETF cost basis is about $86,000; it has stayed below that level for 228 straight trading days. Paper losses shrank from $18 billion to $3.9 billion
Why this is called a “wall” is because, by default, someone above is waiting to sell. These 1.07 million BTC haven't moved—what the price is crossing isn't turnover, but a line of unrealized P/L, simply shifting from loss to breakeven.
Before the wall was hit, I wrote about it. Glassnode said: “If it is touched, short-covering may force price to pass through quickly.” After it was breached, liquidation of over $800 million in shorts did happen—but it was compelled buying.
Voluntary buying is happening in the ETF: on 9/21, the single-day net inflow was $999 million, the largest in 11 months. The last time it was bigger was 2025-10-06, with $1.2 billion inflow—that month BTC set a new all-time high at $126,000. So far this year, however, ETFs are still net outflowing $464 million.
My BTC DCA position stays put. Watch three things: whether $86,000 can hold, whether the seller risk ratio returns to 16 bps, and whether ETF flows have broken.
The wall has been crossed—does that mean nobody above is selling, or is it still not their turn to sell?
#比特币 $BTC
