FOLKS again set off an alert—up only +0.6% in 24h, but underneath it’s all knives: 5m -7.6%, 1h -7.8%, and volume is up 8.4x. This is not an up-move on expanding volume—it’s a down-move on expanding volume. The direction is clear: volume-price are aligned with the bears, not the bulls.

The key is this: the wave of "late add-on acceleration" from 11.8 hours ago hasn’t finished yet; now it’s continuing in the same direction, and this is the second time within 24h. What does that mean? It means the longs who chased earlier haven’t been fully shaken out yet, and price continues to go lower to hunt for liquidity. This structure is called "continuation of the down move" (续跌), not a "pullback" (回踩). Don’t use the idea of "it’s already down so much, it should bounce" to catch a falling knife.

Social chatter is cooling down. In the past 24h there were 74 mentions, breadth 53; in the last 4h it dropped straight to 4 mentions, with 0 KOLs. Out of the 14 posts on X, KOL mentions are 0. The retreat in hype is happening faster than the price decline, suggesting no one is willing to call trades and “carry the sedan” from this level. Retail longs are at 1.6x—these people are the potential future selling pressure.

My take is very direct: the current price is not a buy. To go long, wait for one of two conditions—either a volume expansion on a 1h timeframe that closes with a lower wick and the downtrend stops, then we can discuss a retest confirmation; or wait until this leg of further decline is completely over, volume contracts, and it then consolidates. Before that, “bottom-picking” is just helping the stuck longs in front of you lift the car. If you really want to trade, you can only do it on the right side: set your stop loss below the most recent 5m low, and the target is just to get a bounce back to about half of the 1h down move—take profit and don’t be greedy.

If you’re already long, reduce exposure on the rebound—don’t hold on stubbornly. If you’re in cash, just watch and learn.

Data quick view: 24h +0.6% | 5m -7.6% | 1h -7.8% | volume ratio 8.4 | retail long/short ratio 1.6

Until the setup is confirmed, keeping your hands off is better than anything.

— 22:33 Screen notes