DRIFT is still up +3.9% over the past 24h, but the tape looks off. The 5m timeframe is down 4.7%, the 1h is down 6.0%, while volume has risen to 5.3x. A volume-expansion selloff indicates someone is distributing, not washing out. The increase is the accumulated 24h gain; it doesn’t mean you can still enter now.

Look at the positioning: this is the continuation of that wave of late acceleration from 17.6 hours ago, and it’s the third time within 24h that price has continued in the same direction. The first two continuations were already digested. This time the price-volume structure is worse than the previous two. Whether the third continuation can work depends on whether new money comes in to support it.

Contract sentiment is bearish. The retail long/short ratio over the past 24h is 2.6x—longs are too crowded, and this structure is easy to get broken. Discussion heat is also cooling: there are 85 mentions in 24h, but only 2 mentions in the last 4h, with KOLs dropping from some presence to zero. When the hype fades, chasing longs means you’re essentially lifting the sedan for the people who entered earlier.

In terms of operations, this position is not participating right now. To go long, you need to wait for two conditions: first, the 1h timeframe stops falling and shows a rebound with a high-volume bullish candle that recaptures the drawdown; second, the discussion/attention heat should pick up again, with at least KOLs starting to return. Before these two signals appear, any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, not to add. If you truly want to take a test trade, wait for the pullback and confirmation before entering. Set the stop-loss below the breakout start point of this leg—don’t hold a losing trade.

This stock’s setup is average at best. The kind of names that can extend their rally three times already have their short-term upside space used up; chasing in is just catching a falling knife.

Data overview: 24h +3.9% | 5m -4.7% | 1h -6.0% | volume ratio 5.3 | retail long/short sentiment 2.6

That’s all. Pay attention to risk.

—— 22:33 Market notes