Three hours after the U.S.-Iran meeting in the early morning, the market still tends to be optimistic about the U.S.-Iran situation. However, I think that optimism should be slightly downgraded at this moment, otherwise it could easily turn into an awkward scenario of celebrating too early, like popping champagne at halftime.
The main issue is that although the U.S. is holding dialogue and negotiations with Iran, the external power struggle is still ongoing.
On the U.S. side, sanctions on Iran’s economy have been escalated to secondary sanctions, and the threat has shifted from mere warning to actual enforcement by third countries.
On Iran’s side, it continues to exercise practical rule-based control over the Strait. On September 22, Iran further refined the rules under the “Horizon—Strait Security and Development Strategic Action Plan.” Under Articles 13 to 15, vessels that violate Iran’s regulations will be detained and fined an amount equal to 20% of the cargo value. Clearly, Iran’s pushing for regulations represents an additional deepening of its control over the Strait—and Iran also will not give up control of the Strait.
So, overall, I remain optimistic about the U.S.-Iran situation. But in the short term, I believe we need to downgrade our optimistic expectations, because the Strait’s management authority and economic sanctions are currently both under challenging conditions.#比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高
The main issue is that although the U.S. is holding dialogue and negotiations with Iran, the external power struggle is still ongoing.
On the U.S. side, sanctions on Iran’s economy have been escalated to secondary sanctions, and the threat has shifted from mere warning to actual enforcement by third countries.
On Iran’s side, it continues to exercise practical rule-based control over the Strait. On September 22, Iran further refined the rules under the “Horizon—Strait Security and Development Strategic Action Plan.” Under Articles 13 to 15, vessels that violate Iran’s regulations will be detained and fined an amount equal to 20% of the cargo value. Clearly, Iran’s pushing for regulations represents an additional deepening of its control over the Strait—and Iran also will not give up control of the Strait.
So, overall, I remain optimistic about the U.S.-Iran situation. But in the short term, I believe we need to downgrade our optimistic expectations, because the Strait’s management authority and economic sanctions are currently both under challenging conditions.#比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高
