#纳指创历史新高
Last night, the Nasdaq again hit a new closing high. A lot of people’s first reaction was, “Risk appetite is back.”.. But I split the two markets and looked at them one by one, and the more I looked, the more interesting it seemed..
💥 盘面异动群里说
With the same “new high,” in the U.S. stocks, more than half of the 500 companies are falling behind; in crypto, among the top 100 coins, nearly 90 are still trading above the long-term moving averages..
Most people see “U.S. stocks hitting new highs, so everyone is strong.”.. What’s really worth watching is actually the other two words: breadth..
First, the U.S. stock market.. In the S&P 500, 257 stocks are down below the 200-day moving average—more than half.. And even though the index can still hover at high levels, it’s because a few weighty names that lift the index are growing increasingly important, while the rest are being dragged along..
Now look at crypto.. Among the top 100 by market cap, 88 are above the 200-day moving average. BTC and ETH are in there too, and most of them have even closed above the 50-day and 100-day lines.. Plus, they’re still far from their own all-time highs..
That’s what’s odd.. On one side the index is rising but participation is narrowing; on the other, participation is spreading, yet prices still haven’t caught up to prior highs..
Even more interesting is what the money looks like.. U.S. stocks making new highs increasingly resembles passive index funds being forced to add to a handful of names—the crowding is clustering toward a single point.. But the money in crypto over these days is more spread out: today it’s BCH and ZEC, tomorrow it shifts to another corner..
But here’s the issue.. This “breadth” could also be a mirage.. People doing stablecoin liquidation can point it out plainly: most of the money coming in is going mainly into ETFs right now, not into stablecoins..
One engine can run fast, but it’s also the most afraid of sputtering.. Once the ETF side takes a day off, this crypto setup of “healthy breadth” would be the first place to fail, because stablecoin supply has not been keeping up..
So the next thing that’s truly worth pondering isn’t whether the Nasdaq can still make new highs, and it’s not when BTC will go touch 90,000.. It’s whether the total supply of stablecoins will start rising again..
If it rises, that’s breadth with a foundation.. If it doesn’t, then it’s a one-off diffusion propped up by channel funds—sure, it’s lively, but it won’t stand that firmly..
What’s really worth keeping an eye on is right here.. If it’s just the index performing and intraday funds are spreading out like a pancake, then today’s “old coins” catching up might be the first places to settle the账 when the music stops..
Last night, the Nasdaq again hit a new closing high. A lot of people’s first reaction was, “Risk appetite is back.”.. But I split the two markets and looked at them one by one, and the more I looked, the more interesting it seemed..
💥 盘面异动群里说
With the same “new high,” in the U.S. stocks, more than half of the 500 companies are falling behind; in crypto, among the top 100 coins, nearly 90 are still trading above the long-term moving averages..
Most people see “U.S. stocks hitting new highs, so everyone is strong.”.. What’s really worth watching is actually the other two words: breadth..
First, the U.S. stock market.. In the S&P 500, 257 stocks are down below the 200-day moving average—more than half.. And even though the index can still hover at high levels, it’s because a few weighty names that lift the index are growing increasingly important, while the rest are being dragged along..
Now look at crypto.. Among the top 100 by market cap, 88 are above the 200-day moving average. BTC and ETH are in there too, and most of them have even closed above the 50-day and 100-day lines.. Plus, they’re still far from their own all-time highs..
That’s what’s odd.. On one side the index is rising but participation is narrowing; on the other, participation is spreading, yet prices still haven’t caught up to prior highs..
Even more interesting is what the money looks like.. U.S. stocks making new highs increasingly resembles passive index funds being forced to add to a handful of names—the crowding is clustering toward a single point.. But the money in crypto over these days is more spread out: today it’s BCH and ZEC, tomorrow it shifts to another corner..
But here’s the issue.. This “breadth” could also be a mirage.. People doing stablecoin liquidation can point it out plainly: most of the money coming in is going mainly into ETFs right now, not into stablecoins..
One engine can run fast, but it’s also the most afraid of sputtering.. Once the ETF side takes a day off, this crypto setup of “healthy breadth” would be the first place to fail, because stablecoin supply has not been keeping up..
So the next thing that’s truly worth pondering isn’t whether the Nasdaq can still make new highs, and it’s not when BTC will go touch 90,000.. It’s whether the total supply of stablecoins will start rising again..
If it rises, that’s breadth with a foundation.. If it doesn’t, then it’s a one-off diffusion propped up by channel funds—sure, it’s lively, but it won’t stand that firmly..
What’s really worth keeping an eye on is right here.. If it’s just the index performing and intraday funds are spreading out like a pancake, then today’s “old coins” catching up might be the first places to settle the账 when the music stops..
