📰 Glassnode’s assessment directly hits the “four-year cycle” that many people are familiar with: in the later stage of this market cycle, the likelihood of another deep drawdown like those in past cycles is decreasing.
In the past three cycles, Bitcoin’s pullbacks were more than twice as large as this cycle’s, and at the time there were still several weeks left until the cycle low. By contrast, in this cycle, BTC has currently fallen only about 30% from its all-time high, and the price is already rebounding.
🔥 Honestly, this doesn’t quite match the script many people originally expected. In the past, the market often seemed to assume that at a certain stage, it would repeat a major drop according to the four-year cycle. But this pattern has not fully played out in this bear market.
💡 Of course, what Glassnode is saying is that the “chance of a deep selloff is declining,” not that there won’t be any further declines. Since the cycle pattern didn’t follow the old template, it may indicate that the timing and rhythm of this rally are different from the previous three.
👀 The hardest part to judge turns out not to be whether a pullback will happen, but whether this pullback will replicate the same depth as in the past. Do you think the four-year cycle has failed, or is it just temporarily moving to a different pace?
#比特币 #BTC #Glassnode #market cycle
In the past three cycles, Bitcoin’s pullbacks were more than twice as large as this cycle’s, and at the time there were still several weeks left until the cycle low. By contrast, in this cycle, BTC has currently fallen only about 30% from its all-time high, and the price is already rebounding.
🔥 Honestly, this doesn’t quite match the script many people originally expected. In the past, the market often seemed to assume that at a certain stage, it would repeat a major drop according to the four-year cycle. But this pattern has not fully played out in this bear market.
💡 Of course, what Glassnode is saying is that the “chance of a deep selloff is declining,” not that there won’t be any further declines. Since the cycle pattern didn’t follow the old template, it may indicate that the timing and rhythm of this rally are different from the previous three.
👀 The hardest part to judge turns out not to be whether a pullback will happen, but whether this pullback will replicate the same depth as in the past. Do you think the four-year cycle has failed, or is it just temporarily moving to a different pace?
#比特币 #BTC #Glassnode #market cycle
