Mortgage applications dropped for the third straight week—down 1.5% through mid-September. The 30-year rate hit 7.12%, highest since May.

Three weeks of decline tells you something: even with all the talk about Fed cuts and easing, actual borrowing costs for real people buying real homes are moving the wrong way. Rate expectations and rate reality are two different animals.

Housing is where monetary policy meets human behavior. And right now, that meeting isn't going well.