Bank of Japan raised the rate to 1.25% — the highest level in 31 years. The decision is already in place. Money at the new rate — only starting 24 September.
Figures. BOJ, meeting 18 Sep, vote 7–2: overnight call around 1.25% (was ~1%), complementary deposit also 1.25%. Effective date — 24 Sep. Background: the Fed on 16 Sep was already within the 3.75–4.00% range. After the announcement, the yen did not strengthen — USD/JPY moved toward ~157.84 (+1.2% on the day, according to Reuters). After the print, $BTC didn’t break; it held and rose. The classic unwind of carry is a strong yen plus a drop in risk. So far, the picture is the opposite.
My take: the market priced in the hike in advance. The real test is not the 18 Sep press release, but the start on 24 Sep and the next signal from Ueda. If the yen sharply strengthens and risk and $BTC fall together — that’s when carry is genuinely unwound. For now, it’s a price move, not a liquidation event.
Question: on 24 Sep — a calm start for the new rate, or the first day when the yen and $BTC go in different directions?
$BTC #Bitcoin #BOJ
Figures. BOJ, meeting 18 Sep, vote 7–2: overnight call around 1.25% (was ~1%), complementary deposit also 1.25%. Effective date — 24 Sep. Background: the Fed on 16 Sep was already within the 3.75–4.00% range. After the announcement, the yen did not strengthen — USD/JPY moved toward ~157.84 (+1.2% on the day, according to Reuters). After the print, $BTC didn’t break; it held and rose. The classic unwind of carry is a strong yen plus a drop in risk. So far, the picture is the opposite.
My take: the market priced in the hike in advance. The real test is not the 18 Sep press release, but the start on 24 Sep and the next signal from Ueda. If the yen sharply strengthens and risk and $BTC fall together — that’s when carry is genuinely unwound. For now, it’s a price move, not a liquidation event.
Question: on 24 Sep — a calm start for the new rate, or the first day when the yen and $BTC go in different directions?
$BTC #Bitcoin #BOJ