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A financial brokerage firm, U.S. Tiger Securities, said that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market cycle, while keeping a "Buy" rating and setting a recurring target of $250,000.00, expected to be reached by 2029 or earlier.
Analyst Bo Bai said this shift is based on gradually rising lows and gradually rising highs, as well as a recovery above key investors’ cost levels, surpassing the company’s previous assessment—issued in July—that the market was in a "late stage of a bear market." Bai added that renewed buying of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) "adds evidence that demand is recovering alongside prices."
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Byte pointed out that the adverse winds expected from the policies failed to break Bitcoin’s upward trend. With the regulatory clarity bill’s setback and the Federal Reserve’s expected 25-basis-point interest-rate hike, Bitcoin fell by 5.9% during the week of political decisions, while its lowest price in the 24 hours following the Fed decision was only 1.0% below its level before the decision. The subsequent recovery pushed it above the May peak of $82,814.00, bringing the total gains from the July low to 49.1%.
In September, the recovery in the cost basis coincided with renewed demand for exchange-traded funds. Bitcoin had briefly dipped below the “real market mean” near the $76,000.00–$77,000.00 range, but remained above the cost basis for short-term holders before recovering above both reference levels.
Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows of $4.20 billion during the period from August 17 to September 21, reflecting net outflows of $8.42 billion recorded over eight straight weeks from May until early July. Byte noted that the inflow on September 21, at $937.30 million, was the largest in a single day since the cycle peak in October 2025.
Commenting on the macroeconomic backdrop, the analyst said that the limited interest-rate hike cycle keeps his long-term financial thesis intact, as persistent deficits and higher refinancing costs create incentives to reduce the government’s financing costs over the long term, supporting Bitcoin’s “cash premium.”
The $250,000.00 target combines a relative valuation anchor versus gold with a reference check of the cost basis on-chain. Based on the final supply of 21 million units, this implies a network value of $5.25 trillion, equivalent to 16.9% of the estimated market value of gold, which is close to the low end of the company’s initial range of 15%-25%.
Byte said that a 20%-30% rise in gold prices would reduce that implied percentage to 13.0%-14.1%, meaning further gold gains could support the target without the need for a major shift in Bitcoin’s relative allocation.
He added that the growth required to reach the target is more modest than in previous cycles, as the cost basis would need to move into the $147,000.00–$167,000.00 range. This implies a 24%-29% compound annual growth rate over three years, which is lower than the pace of roughly 39% following the April 2023 recovery signal. $KO
