🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹 September 23: On-chain giant whale holdings and chip (position) structure
Exchange spot holdings fall to a low level: The amount of BTC spot reserves held by exchanges continues to decline, and liquidity supply (Liquid Supply) tightens further, forming a typical “Supply Squeeze.”
Long-term holders (LTH) remain firmly locked: “Long-term holder” addresses holding for more than 1 year showed no large-scale profit-taking sell-off during the breakout of $87,000, with chips/holdings remaining extremely concentrated.
Chips concentrate toward large holders: The number of whale addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more shows net growth, and chips are accelerating in their shift from retail traders and short-term leveraged traders toward institutional custody accounts and on-chain giant whales.
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🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹 Tech giants preparing on-chain settlement: The latest hiring needs from Apple and Google show that both companies are preparing underlying technology and product R&D related to stablecoins and tokenized deposits.
Hong Kong stocks Web3 concept shares surge: In the intraday session today, Hong Kong-listed company Boyaa Interactive (00434.HK) jumped by more than 6%. The company announced that it will continue accumulating Bitcoin and increase its funding for Web3 ecosystem projects.
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According to the latest data from the CME “FedWatch” tool as of September 16, 2026, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in this meeting is expected to be about 92.4%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 7.6%.
Probability data from different sources
Apart from CME data, other market indicators also point to similar expectations:
· Interest rate swap contracts show that traders believe there is about a 94% probability that the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. · Some reports mention that the CME FedWatch probability has exceeded 93%, up sharply from a week ago.
Future rate-hike expectations (through October)
Market expectations for the policy path in October are also present:
· Probability of keeping rates unchanged: 4% · Probability of cumulative 25 basis points of rate hikes: 52% · Probability of cumulative 50 basis points of rate hikes: 44%
Background and market focus
This FOMC meeting is the first rate-setting meeting after Kevin Warsh took office as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and it is also the first time since 2023 that the Fed might potentially press the “rate-hike button.” Market attention is no longer only on whether the Fed will raise rates this time (which has already been highly priced in), but also on the Fed’s subsequent policy guidance—specifically whether the dot plot will indicate additional rate-hike rounds, and whether Warsh’s wording in the press conference will lean hawkish.
All of the probability data above comes from market tools such as the CME “FedWatch,” reflecting market pricing rather than official Fed forecasts. The actual decision should be based on the FOMC statement to be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17.
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🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹 Xiaomo is bullish on a Bitcoin short-squeeze scenario: In its latest report, JPMorgan Chase noted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) has short positions nearing this year’s high point. This imbalance in open-contract ratios may create more upside for Bitcoin, because once the price rises, the short squeeze will further accelerate its rebound. ZetaChain proposal approved—transitioning to Solana: With an overwhelming 99.4% support rate, the ZetaChain community passed Proposal No. 68. The vote will close its original Layer 1 blockchain and migrate and convert the ZETA token on a 1:1 basis into Solana-native SPL tokens. In the future, the team will focus on AI applications. Follow me and answer to take away the $SOL red envelope! 🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹
🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹 News worth paying attention to within September 19th: 1. Exchange and product updates: Binance launches FX perpetual contracts Binance expands its TradFi perpetual products: On September 19, Binance announced the launch of a foreign exchange (FX) perpetual contract category under its traditional finance (TradFi) perpetual contracts, providing users worldwide with a 24/7 trading channel for a regulated FX market settled in USDT. The first FX perpetual trading pair (USD/Brazilian real, USDBRLUSDT) is expected to go live on September 21, 2026. 2. Industry summit: UN Blockchain Week 2026 concludes A New York event spotlights Web3 infrastructure: As a major industry event held in Times Square, New York, in mid-September (September 10–19), UN Blockchain Week 2026 wrapped up on September 19. The conference not only discussed Bitcoin and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, but also placed special emphasis on AI agents running on decentralized rails, as well as real-world deployments of Web3 in supply chains, digital identity, and compliance.
3. Market outlook and macro trends Bitcoin consolidates amid regulatory shifts: Bitcoin has recently been trading in a range of $77,000 to $81,500, consolidating. At the same time, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently submitted related new rules for cryptocurrencies to the White House, and the evolution of macro-regulatory policies continues to influence market investors’ sentiment. Follow me—answer 1 and take away the $SOL红包. 🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹
🧧🎁🧧🎁🧧🎁 Around September 18, a series of important infrastructure upgrades, project pivots, and industry ecosystem developments took place in the blockchain sector:
1. The Vanar chain completed a major migration and formally shut down its independent L1 mainnet Vanar project. On September 18, it officially initiated the shutdown and liquidation procedures for its original independent Layer 1 blockchain. Before that, on September 17, the project had completed the migration of its token contracts, and trading of VANRY tokens on Ethereum and Polygon was formally paused, fully transitioning to the Base chain. This move marks its departure from the early era of independent public chains. In the future, its strategy will fully shift toward an AI application ecosystem built on the Base chain and “AI Organizations” (AI orgs) platform (such as the Foundry platform planned for release on October 1).
2. In mid-September, the industry’s pragmatic shift toward real-world Web3 business adoption accelerated. The focus of discussions in the Web3 space is moving faster from pure token speculation and concept hype toward “eliminating real-world friction in commerce.” Developers and startups are increasingly inclined to apply blockchain technology to scenarios that truly require multi-party trust, tamper-proof credentials, supply-chain anti-counterfeiting, and digital identity verification—while keeping sensitive data and core business logic off-chain. The emphasis is on “trust infrastructure is better than token theater.”
3. Global regional Web3 and blockchain conferences continued to advance. With mid-September approaching, Web3 technical events and conferences combining academia and industry (such as regional tech events like Brazil’s Web3 PE, etc.) are also rolling out in close succession. These discussions mainly focus on concrete deployment cases of blockchain in areas such as the digital economy, compliant payments, and the creative industries. Overall, as of September 18, the Web3 industry is undergoing structural adjustments: public-chain ecosystems are converging toward mainstream high-performance networks (such as Base) through architectural upgrades, while the industry’s application layer is becoming more pragmatic and compliant.
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🧧🎁🧧🎁🧧🎁 On September 17, the crypto industry saw multiple highly关注able sector updates and events. The core news mainly centered on regulatory roundtables, traditional financial giants entering the space, and industry summits, among other topics: 1. The U.S. SEC holds a 24-hour on-chain stock trading roundtable On September 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hosted an important roundtable on “24-hour on-chain stock trading.” The meeting invited traditional financial giants such as BlackRock, Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, and Robinhood, along with crypto industry participants and institutions. Key agenda: The meeting aims to discuss the rule framework for enabling U.S. equities to settle on-chain 24/7. Technology route competition: The market is currently focused on which blockchain—Ethereum or Solana—will take on the role of the primary underlying settlement infrastructure. Solana holds an advantage in terms of tokenized U.S. stock volume and low fees, while Ethereum is favored by traditional finance due to its deep institutional compliance foundation (such as BlackRock’s BUIDL fund). 2. The Fourth U.S. Crypto Banking, Compliance & Stablecoin Summit (CBC Summit USA) kicks off The 4th annual CBC Summit USA was held on September 17 at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. Main focus: This summit brings together senior executives, regulators, and lawmakers across the industry. Key topics include crypto banking services, compliance frameworks, stablecoin development, and the deep integration of traditional finance with Web3. 3. Deeper cooperation between traditional industries and Web3 infrastructure Hyundai explores the Avalanche ecosystem: After successfully completing a pilot project, Hyundai is considering further expanding its related business and applications on the Avalanche (Avalanche Protocol) blockchain. Circle Arc mainnet goes live: Stablecoin issuer Circle’s Arc mainnet recently launched and has introduced support from payment giants such as Visa and Mastercard, injecting new momentum into the Web3 payments sector. Overall, the Web3 industry updates on September 17 show that traditional financial regulators and Wall Street capital are accelerating the process of bringing assets on-chain and strengthening compliance. Follow me—answer 1 will take away the $SOL red envelope. 🧧🎁🧧🎁🧧🎁
🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥 The recent market action is genuinely a back-and-forth probing. Here are 3 supporting indicators to help you verify a true breakout: Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): Check whether the breakout is driven by spot active buying or by leveraged futures. If spot CVD and the contract price both make new highs at the same time, the odds of a real breakout are extremely high. If only the contracts pump while spot CVD stays flat, it’s often a false breakout. SR-Flip (Resistance-to-Support confirmation): After a breakout, wait for the first pullback on the 5M/15M timeframe. If, when price retests the prior high resistance zone, it shows reduced volume and does not break down, it confirms that resistance has successfully flipped into support—an excellent right-side entry point with relatively low risk. Liquidation Heatmap: If a large short liquidation pool (Liquidation Pool) has accumulated above key highs, then after price pierces through that area, if OI drops sharply, it indicates the liquidation has been completed and short-term momentum has largely been exhausted. Follow me—answer 1 and take the $SOL red envelope. 🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥