【Let me talk about this FIL move. I won’t buy, but I can understand why it’s going up】
Honestly, at the price $ 1.03, you ask me whether it’s bullish or bearish—I don’t really get it, but I don’t think it will collapse right away.
Three reasons.
First, it’s already up nearly 30%. In the short term, momentum is still there. You know how inertia works—it’s not like it stops just because people say so. In 2021, I also saw this kind of move. When it keeps rallying and makes you question reality, it often can still surge one more leg. But I’ve also seen rallies end and then crash right back down. So I don’t chase, but I also understand why people can’t help themselves.
Second, the F&G index is 71—not a crazy top-range. It only suggests that market sentiment is warming up. The whole environment is still in a recovery/repair phase. And FIL is basically taking a sip of the soup with the broader market—this logic makes sense to me.
Third, the fact that trading volume is expanding—someone is moving, and it’s not just small money. Small funds can’t move this market. If you ask whether the main players are distributing? It’s possible. But if you ask whether the main players are accumulating? I also think it’s possible. Back in 2017, I got scared off by this kind of “volume-spiking top” narrative, only to later realize that some volume truly was buy orders—not a trap.
But the thing I really want to ask is this: does anyone actually use Filecoin for real?
I looked into it. There is real storage demand, but the scale can’t support the market cap story you’re being told. In plain terms, FIL is rising now not because the storage sector is exploding—it’s because people are trading sentiment: trading the oversold rebound, trading the follow-the-crowd行情 (the行情 led by big pie).
This kind of market is the most dangerous. When it’s going up, you think it’s driven by fundamentals. When it drops, you realize there’s basically nobody left to take the other side.
So what situation would make me misjudge? If, over the next week, FIL can hold above $ 1 and the trading volume doesn’t shrink, then I’d say the consolidation trend is relatively strong. But if suddenly it sees a big-volume drop, then I’ll admit I misread this move. I’m inclined to think there won’t be that kind of drop—but I said it, and I do what I say differently: my hands are steadier than my mouth.
What about you? In this FIL move, do you dare to follow—or are you just going to watch like me?
Honestly, at the price $ 1.03, you ask me whether it’s bullish or bearish—I don’t really get it, but I don’t think it will collapse right away.
Three reasons.
First, it’s already up nearly 30%. In the short term, momentum is still there. You know how inertia works—it’s not like it stops just because people say so. In 2021, I also saw this kind of move. When it keeps rallying and makes you question reality, it often can still surge one more leg. But I’ve also seen rallies end and then crash right back down. So I don’t chase, but I also understand why people can’t help themselves.
Second, the F&G index is 71—not a crazy top-range. It only suggests that market sentiment is warming up. The whole environment is still in a recovery/repair phase. And FIL is basically taking a sip of the soup with the broader market—this logic makes sense to me.
Third, the fact that trading volume is expanding—someone is moving, and it’s not just small money. Small funds can’t move this market. If you ask whether the main players are distributing? It’s possible. But if you ask whether the main players are accumulating? I also think it’s possible. Back in 2017, I got scared off by this kind of “volume-spiking top” narrative, only to later realize that some volume truly was buy orders—not a trap.
But the thing I really want to ask is this: does anyone actually use Filecoin for real?
I looked into it. There is real storage demand, but the scale can’t support the market cap story you’re being told. In plain terms, FIL is rising now not because the storage sector is exploding—it’s because people are trading sentiment: trading the oversold rebound, trading the follow-the-crowd行情 (the行情 led by big pie).
This kind of market is the most dangerous. When it’s going up, you think it’s driven by fundamentals. When it drops, you realize there’s basically nobody left to take the other side.
So what situation would make me misjudge? If, over the next week, FIL can hold above $ 1 and the trading volume doesn’t shrink, then I’d say the consolidation trend is relatively strong. But if suddenly it sees a big-volume drop, then I’ll admit I misread this move. I’m inclined to think there won’t be that kind of drop—but I said it, and I do what I say differently: my hands are steadier than my mouth.
What about you? In this FIL move, do you dare to follow—or are you just going to watch like me?