OECD predicts: the Fed may raise rates one more time within the year. Crypto market conditions should be on alert.

Recently, the OECD released its latest global economic outlook. The future direction of interest rates for major central banks now has a new reference, and this report’s impact on the crypto market should not be underestimated.

According to a September 23 report by BlockBeats, the OECD has offered the following assessment: the Fed and the ECB are likely to raise rates one more time this year. By 2027, the two central banks will maintain stable interest rates.

There are also expectations for the monetary policies of other major economies: the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its key interest rate to 2% by the end of 2027; the Bank of England’s rates are expected to remain unchanged for most of 2027, with the possibility of rate cuts later on.

U.S. dollar liquidity has long been the key factor driving the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets and react very sensitively to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes and cuts.

If the Federal Reserve implements another round of rate hikes within the year, borrowing costs in the U.S. will continue to rise. Funds are likely to be more willing to move into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, pulling money out of the crypto market. Bitcoin and various altcoins will face selling pressure, and the market may see choppy pullbacks and consolidation in the short term.

Many crypto investors were originally hoping the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates soon, triggering a new bull run. But according to this OECD forecast, even if the rate hikes end, rates will remain high through 2027, pushing back the window for easing and “liquidity dumping.” In the short term, it’s unlikely that large amounts of incremental capital will enter, and the crypto market is unlikely to break out into a sustained one-way rally; it will most likely fluctuate back and forth within a range.

If the European Central Bank also follows suit with rate hikes, it will further tighten global overall liquidity and amplify volatility in risk assets. Diverging policy directions between the central banks of Japan and the UK will lead to currency fluctuations, which can also indirectly affect cross-border capital inflows into the crypto market.

However, it’s important to distinguish this: it’s only an institutional forecast, not a set-in-stone policy decision. Whether the Federal Reserve ultimately raises rates still depends on changes in U.S. inflation and employment data. If inflation cools quickly, this expectation could easily fail.

For crypto investors, at this stage it’s crucial not to chase rallies with a heavy position. With rate-hike expectations in play, market volatility will increase significantly, and the risk of altcoins will be even higher. It’s recommended to manage position sizes, keep monitoring U.S. economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials, and wait until the direction of monetary policy is clearer before making plans.#ZEC突破1600美元创新高 $NVDAB