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How does the “liquidity trap” swallow the dollar? A Fidelity expert sets the fair price of gold

Gold has entered a new phase of historical pricing that goes beyond traditional theories. According to “Gurien Timer,” global head of macroeconomics at “Fidelity Investments,” the fair price of the yellow metal has already crossed the $5,000 per ounce threshold. This shocking valuation is not based on fleeting speculation, but instead reflects a deep structural shift in the markets: gold is no longer moving based on real interest rates, but has become a “pure bet on cash liquidity.”

From interest to liquidity… the historic turning point

In a recent analysis, “Timer” explained that gold’s recent gains have been supported by the start of a recovery in the “global liquidity file.” Based on a mathematical regression model that measures the relationship between global money supply (M2) and gold prices, the fair value of the yellow metal is effectively at $5,000. He also noted that this radical shift—away from pricing driven by real bond yields and toward pricing led by liquidity—actually began in 2022.

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