$BTC $ETH This rally’s “eating style” doesn’t look too good. From what I’ve observed: every time the price pushes up to around 80,000, once it reaches the 81,000–82,000 range, it clearly can’t go any further. That suggests the main force isn’t as strong as it looks on the surface. Several times it fell below the 4-hour line, then hard-rallied back by blasting short-sellers, digesting the selling pressure.
Whether this bull market is really propped up by blasting short-sellers? I’m not sure. But the joint institutions clearly don’t have the ability to break through the dense previous trading area in one go. In my view, their playbook is basically “lure shorts”: first, let the high-level longs close out at low levels to get them offloaded, then lure short-sellers into entering and adding positions at low levels. After that, they blast the shorts, wiping out the selling pressure. Because there are so many people chasing shorts during the down move, the float becomes cheap. Almost every time, it’s accomplished by blasting shorts, and the selling pressure gets smaller each time.
This recent round is no exception. Borrowing this super negative catalyst—rate hikes—they managed to fool another large batch of short-sellers. Even those big whales at high levels were attracted to add positions, and the liquidation line was pushed even lower. If you don’t add positions, you can’t get blasted, and you end up eating more selling pressure; if you do add, the whale gets blasted too. As a result, the once-solid dense liquidation zone was broken through in one shot.
If this bull market wasn’t pushed up by blasting short-sellers, then BTC would have already topped by now. Also, based on historical patterns, after a rate hike, it’s normal for the price to rise within a week—yet the current behavior is actually abnormal. I feel the waterfall is not far off.
Whether this bull market is really propped up by blasting short-sellers? I’m not sure. But the joint institutions clearly don’t have the ability to break through the dense previous trading area in one go. In my view, their playbook is basically “lure shorts”: first, let the high-level longs close out at low levels to get them offloaded, then lure short-sellers into entering and adding positions at low levels. After that, they blast the shorts, wiping out the selling pressure. Because there are so many people chasing shorts during the down move, the float becomes cheap. Almost every time, it’s accomplished by blasting shorts, and the selling pressure gets smaller each time.
This recent round is no exception. Borrowing this super negative catalyst—rate hikes—they managed to fool another large batch of short-sellers. Even those big whales at high levels were attracted to add positions, and the liquidation line was pushed even lower. If you don’t add positions, you can’t get blasted, and you end up eating more selling pressure; if you do add, the whale gets blasted too. As a result, the once-solid dense liquidation zone was broken through in one shot.
If this bull market wasn’t pushed up by blasting short-sellers, then BTC would have already topped by now. Also, based on historical patterns, after a rate hike, it’s normal for the price to rise within a week—yet the current behavior is actually abnormal. I feel the waterfall is not far off.