Trump at the UN General Assembly stage shouting for the “elimination” of Iran, while the US and Iranian representatives below turn around and secretly meet in New York for three hours—this script, I’ve seen it before.
Iran’s foreign minister has already made an offer: lift the sanctions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As soon as the news broke, Brent plunged straight below $99, while WTI crude dropped more than 4%. The geopolitical premium that had been soaring just days ago was吐回去 within two days.
But oil tanker freight rates won’t lie—$1.2 million per day, a record high. BofA also warned that if the disruption lasts, Brent could surge to $150. So what the market is pricing in now is “expectations of de-escalation,” not real peace.
For $BTC , this is a good thing: falling oil prices cool inflation expectations, easing some pressure on the Fed, and risk assets finally get to breathe again. When oil prices were surging earlier, $BTC was used as a punching bag for inflation; now it’s a window for emotional repair.
But don’t get too excited. Diesel prices hit a record, and Trump directly called for a ban on diesel exports. If this administrative big stick actually comes down, volatility on the energy side will only get bigger.
My view: for the short term, it’s fine to follow the oil-price rebound to catch your breath, but if geopolitics flips back and forth, it moves faster than a needle through $BTC . Don’t treat the rebound as a reversal.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #地缘政治 #原油 #cryptocurrency
Iran’s foreign minister has already made an offer: lift the sanctions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As soon as the news broke, Brent plunged straight below $99, while WTI crude dropped more than 4%. The geopolitical premium that had been soaring just days ago was吐回去 within two days.
But oil tanker freight rates won’t lie—$1.2 million per day, a record high. BofA also warned that if the disruption lasts, Brent could surge to $150. So what the market is pricing in now is “expectations of de-escalation,” not real peace.
For $BTC , this is a good thing: falling oil prices cool inflation expectations, easing some pressure on the Fed, and risk assets finally get to breathe again. When oil prices were surging earlier, $BTC was used as a punching bag for inflation; now it’s a window for emotional repair.
But don’t get too excited. Diesel prices hit a record, and Trump directly called for a ban on diesel exports. If this administrative big stick actually comes down, volatility on the energy side will only get bigger.
My view: for the short term, it’s fine to follow the oil-price rebound to catch your breath, but if geopolitics flips back and forth, it moves faster than a needle through $BTC . Don’t treat the rebound as a reversal.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #地缘政治 #原油 #cryptocurrency