Bitcoin this week has reclaimed the $87,000 level, hitting an eight-month high. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has also returned to $3 trillion. Everyone is watching the price, but this week the real number to focus on is another one: $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options expires on Friday.

Many people think options expiration is just contract settlement and has nothing to do with people holding spot. In reality, market makers hold large options positions, and to hedge, they must passively buy and sell around the expiration date. The closer the price gets to strike zones where options are concentrated, the heavier this passive order flow becomes. As a result, in the few days before delivery, $BTC is often pinned around a handful of price levels, while there’s actually less time for free, natural volatility.

In expiration week, I never chase breakouts. I wait until after delivery, when the passive order flow is withdrawn, and then I judge whether this move is a true lift or just a false action.

The issue this time is that the volume buildup is right on top of the prior high. Do you think before Friday, the price will first be pushed back down, or will it directly punch through that layer of positioning? #比特币