It’s incredible that the US and Iran actually sat down and talked—first time since June. Just as Trump finished delivering the harsh words about "annihilation" with his front foot, he started talking with the other side with his back foot. The plot is even faster than a TV series.
The market’s reaction has been pretty straightforward. $CL plunged by 4.41% to 89.32. The logic is simple: as long as there’s something to talk about in the Middle East, the geopolitical premium embedded in crude oil has to get paid back. That premium has been propping things up for so long—once the negotiation table shows up, it starts to unwind. In my view, the level around 85 below $CL is a key support. If it breaks, things won’t look good. A rebound toward around 92 could be a spot worth considering trimming—anyway, I won’t chase longs from here.
$XAU is holding steady instead—4335.94, up 0.27%, basically unchanged. Safe-haven funds didn’t rush to pull out, which suggests everyone also understands this: negotiations are one thing; flipping the script is always just a matter of minutes. In situations like this, gold is in that kind of "I’m not rising, but I’m not panicking either" mode. There’s no need to move the positions around 4300.
My thinking is very simple: treat crude oil as bearish. Keep gold on standby. If negotiations succeed, crude oil gets beaten up further; if talks break down, gold jumps first, and then crude oil gets a pull-up afterward. That’s the rhythm.
$XAU $CL
#gold
The market’s reaction has been pretty straightforward. $CL plunged by 4.41% to 89.32. The logic is simple: as long as there’s something to talk about in the Middle East, the geopolitical premium embedded in crude oil has to get paid back. That premium has been propping things up for so long—once the negotiation table shows up, it starts to unwind. In my view, the level around 85 below $CL is a key support. If it breaks, things won’t look good. A rebound toward around 92 could be a spot worth considering trimming—anyway, I won’t chase longs from here.
$XAU is holding steady instead—4335.94, up 0.27%, basically unchanged. Safe-haven funds didn’t rush to pull out, which suggests everyone also understands this: negotiations are one thing; flipping the script is always just a matter of minutes. In situations like this, gold is in that kind of "I’m not rising, but I’m not panicking either" mode. There’s no need to move the positions around 4300.
My thinking is very simple: treat crude oil as bearish. Keep gold on standby. If negotiations succeed, crude oil gets beaten up further; if talks break down, gold jumps first, and then crude oil gets a pull-up afterward. That’s the rhythm.
$XAU $CL
#gold
