The oil-price saga is even more dramatic than the crypto market.
Trump made a speech at the UN saying he would “eliminate” Iran, then the U.S. delegation turned around and sat down with Iran in New York to talk—first time since June. One side is shouting to fight while the other is shaking hands, and the market is completely thrown off.
The funding picture is at least straightforward: oil prices have fallen for five straight days. Saudi pipeline operations have resumed, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up, and the Nasdaq hit a fresh high last night—$BTC , too, caught a breather along with risk assets.
But Bank of America doused it with cold water: if the conflict in Iran keeps disrupting supply, Brent could be seen at $150, and diesel prices have already hit a record high. Once oil truly lights up inflation expectations, the rate-cut trade will have to be repriced—though the anti-inflation narrative resurfacing may not necessarily be a bad thing for $BTC .
Russia-Ukraine tensions are also heating up. Ukraine has just struck two Russian refineries. Energy is the thread that’s now pulling the nerves of all risk assets.
My take: don’t chase rallies or panic-sell in the short term. Keep enough flexibility in your position—real breakouts and fake breakouts are often just one headline apart.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #地缘政治 #油价 # cryptocurrency
Trump made a speech at the UN saying he would “eliminate” Iran, then the U.S. delegation turned around and sat down with Iran in New York to talk—first time since June. One side is shouting to fight while the other is shaking hands, and the market is completely thrown off.
The funding picture is at least straightforward: oil prices have fallen for five straight days. Saudi pipeline operations have resumed, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up, and the Nasdaq hit a fresh high last night—$BTC , too, caught a breather along with risk assets.
But Bank of America doused it with cold water: if the conflict in Iran keeps disrupting supply, Brent could be seen at $150, and diesel prices have already hit a record high. Once oil truly lights up inflation expectations, the rate-cut trade will have to be repriced—though the anti-inflation narrative resurfacing may not necessarily be a bad thing for $BTC .
Russia-Ukraine tensions are also heating up. Ukraine has just struck two Russian refineries. Energy is the thread that’s now pulling the nerves of all risk assets.
My take: don’t chase rallies or panic-sell in the short term. Keep enough flexibility in your position—real breakouts and fake breakouts are often just one headline apart.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #地缘政治 #油价 # cryptocurrency