This drop in oil prices is a bit unreasonable. $CL is now at 89.33, down another 4.4% over the past 24 hours. It looks like it’s on track to set the longest streak of consecutive declines in more than a year.
Most people’s first reaction is that demand has collapsed and the economy is finished. But think about it carefully: this round of declines looks more like supply-side conditions are quietly easing. OPEC+’s production cuts have been lacking in execution, and U.S. shale output hasn’t shown any obvious drop. Demand isn’t actually that bad; the market has just priced in the worst-case scenario first.
What’s interesting is that $XAU is up slightly today by 0.26%, reaching 4335.76. Logically, with oil prices falling like this, inflation expectations should also move down, and gold should face pressure. But it hasn’t. That suggests the market’s core concern isn’t deflation—but something else. This divergence signal is more worth pondering than the oil price itself.
At this level, those chasing short positions should be careful.
#CrudeOil
Most people’s first reaction is that demand has collapsed and the economy is finished. But think about it carefully: this round of declines looks more like supply-side conditions are quietly easing. OPEC+’s production cuts have been lacking in execution, and U.S. shale output hasn’t shown any obvious drop. Demand isn’t actually that bad; the market has just priced in the worst-case scenario first.
What’s interesting is that $XAU is up slightly today by 0.26%, reaching 4335.76. Logically, with oil prices falling like this, inflation expectations should also move down, and gold should face pressure. But it hasn’t. That suggests the market’s core concern isn’t deflation—but something else. This divergence signal is more worth pondering than the oil price itself.
At this level, those chasing short positions should be careful.
#CrudeOil