Looking at Bitway (BTW), the main thing I care about is: can it convert product growth into sustained token demand?

My preliminary assessment: Bitway already has observable product scale and revenue data worth tracking; however, the current valuation places high requirements on future growth, so you can’t directly equate product earnings with token-holder earnings.

The following separates official disclosures, third-party data, and personal judgment. Data was queried on September 23, 2026 from 14:15 to 14:16 Beijing time; prices change with the market.

1. What is Bitway doing?

It can be understood as two lines of business.

The first is Bitway Earn. According to the latest official documentation, users deposit stablecoins into an on-chain vault to obtain share certificates; most funds go into custodial accounts and are operated by different trading strategies. Returns are settled back to the vault according to product rules, and any portion exceeding what is distributed to users is kept as platform revenue. [1]

The second is Bitway Ledger and its native BTC lending, as well as cross-chain infrastructure. The official design emphasizes compatibility with Bitcoin addresses and wallets, and supports BTC-collateralized financing through technologies such as DLC. [2]

These two tracks have room for synergy in imagination: one side attracts capital, while the other expands financing and asset-usage scenarios. However, the technical architecture description can only prove the intended design direction. To verify the actual lending balances, active users, and ongoing revenue, you need additional checks.

Second, the product already has scale, and the valuation also needs to be examined seriously

This time, a direct snapshot query of the CoinGecko API shows: BTW is about $0.9195, with a circulating market cap of roughly $2.485 billion, and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of about $9.177 billion. The market data update time is 14:13:10 Beijing time. [3]

In the same period, according to DefiLlama, Bitway Earn’s TVL is about $83.25 million, and protocol revenue over the past 30 days is about $122,000. [4]

Here, TVL refers to the size of locked assets reported by that platform; it is not the project’s profit or holders’ net asset value. Protocol revenue is also not net profit after deducting all operating costs, and it is not the same as money distributed to BTW holders.

My interpretation is: the market has already priced in fairly high growth expectations. Going forward, both business expansion and token demand need to support it. The revenue above only covers Earn; it does not represent the entire Bitway ecosystem, nor can it be used directly to apply a stock P/E multiple.

Third, how does BTW’s value get carried through?

The utilities listed by the official include governance, network staking and delegation, Ledger gas, and—after staking—possible product access, enhanced rewards, and fee discounts. The specific entitlements are executed according to each plan’s rules. [5]

But between “having uses” and “having ongoing net buy pressure,” you still need operational data to connect the dots.

I will focus on whether the product truly requires holding or locking BTW, how much cost users are willing to pay for these rights, and whether the demand generated by real usage can cover incentive releases.

In DefiLlama, the current field for cumulative token-holder income is 0. This only means that, under this platform’s definition, no income has been recorded; it cannot be inferred that all token-holder entitlements do not exist. [4] Also, the official token utility page consulted this time does not provide rules sufficient for me to confirm stable cash distribution. [5]

Therefore, until I see clearer execution mechanisms, I will not directly translate the scale growth of Earn into BTW returns.

Fourth, supply and redemptions—these two types of risk must be considered separately

Based on the CoinGecko data in this round, BTW’s total supply is 10 billion tokens, with circulating supply of about 2.708 billion tokens, or roughly 27.08%. [3] The non-circulating portion is still substantial, but non-circulating does not mean it will be unlocked immediately, nor does it mean there is necessarily selling pressure. The specific pressure needs to be verified by release timing, recipients, and actual transfers; this article does not state unlock dates as conclusions without independently verifying primary documentation.

At the product level, the official FAQ states: ordinary redemptions typically require waiting about 7 days; fast redemptions have fees; and in extreme market conditions or risk events, redemptions may be paused. [6]

This means that depositing funds on-chain does not necessarily mean the funds always remain on-chain, nor does it guarantee immediate and unconditional exit. To evaluate Earn, you need to look at strategy, custody, and liquidity arrangements together. BTC lending also has its own trust assumptions: the official clearly discloses reliance on the oracle and the collateral management party. [7]

Participating in Earn and buying BTW involves different risks. You cannot assume the other is safe just because you understand one of them.

Fifth, what would make me more optimistic?

I will continue to track four things:

1. After incentives are reduced, can the fund size and user retention remain stable?

2. Does protocol revenue keep growing, and can the sources and costs be made more transparent?

3. Does BTW’s access, staking, and usage demand form a verifiable long-term lock-in?

4. Can token releases match real incremental demand, and when redemption pressure appears, can the product operate normally?

If these metrics improve together, the long-term logic will be more solid. If the main change is only the token price, and business and token demand do not兑现 in sync, then the valuation needs to be re-examined.

My stance is to stay attentive while demanding more evidence. Bitway’s product direction is worth researching, but for the buy-in price, supply structure, and holder rights, they still each need to pass their own tests.

This article presents research views based on publicly available information. It does not constitute personalized investment advice, nor does it predict short-term prices.

Sources:

[1] Bitway Earn latest operations overview: https://docs.bitway.com/bitway-earn/how-does-it-work

[2] Bitway Ledger official explanation: https://docs.bitway.com/bitway-ledger/bitway-ledger

[3] CoinGecko price and circulating supply: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitway (This article uses an API snapshot taken at query time)

[4] DefiLlama TVL, protocol revenue, and statistical methodology: https://defillama.com/protocol/bitway-earn

[5] BTW official utility: https://docs.bitway.com/resources/btw-bitway-token

[6] Bitway Earn FAQ: https://docs.bitway.com/bitway-earn/faq

[7] BTC lending trust assumptions: https://docs.bitway.com/bitway-ledger/native-bitcoin-lending/trust-assumptions