#BTC ：Mid-Autumn Festival is here—will National Day turn into a disaster too?
A week ago, the market fear index was only 34, sitting in the fear zone. Yesterday it surged straight to 78, entering extreme greed. BTC has gained more than 10% over the past week and has held above the 86,000 mark.
With such a fast switch in sentiment, I need to remind everyone before the holiday: watch out for a “Mid-Autumn disaster” and a “National Day disaster.”
Looking back at past market moves:
In 2017, ahead of National Day, domestic exchanges saw a wave of shutdowns. BTC crashed for eight days, dropping nearly 40%, with a low of $2,972.
In 2021, just three days after Mid-Autumn, the central bank issued a notice. Within an hour, BTC was quickly smashed from 45,000 to 42,000.
On National Day in 2024, a geopolitical conflict erupted. BTC fell from 66,500 to 60,000, and in the positions liquidated, longs made up over 95%.
After the 8-day break spanning Mid-Autumn and National Day in 2025 ended, the 10/10 tariff news was released. In just three hours, BTC plunged from 123,000 to 102,000. Liquidations across the whole network totaled $19.1 billion, setting the record for the largest single-day clearing. A staggering 1.62 million people were caught. And just a few days before the selloff, BTC had only refreshed its all-time high.
I’m not superstitious about so-called holiday “curses.” The trigger for each major drop is different. But long holidays can amplify risk: traders in Chinese-speaking regions go on break, market liquidity worsens, many people stop watching the order book as closely, take-profit/stop-loss discipline loosens, and the crypto market still doesn’t have circuit-breaker protection. During last year’s 10/10 move, the BTC perpetual contract price basis/spread spiked to a level of over a thousand times in an instant—yet just when liquidity was most needed, liquidity essentially dried up.
Let’s do a quick calculation: the current BTC price is 86,000. A move of ten thousand points means a range of 11.6%. With 10x leverage, if it drops by just 8%-9%, liquidations are likely to be triggered. One big red candle down for ten thousand points and your position is wiped out immediately. Last year’s drop was 16.9%; translated to today, that’s roughly a fluctuation of 14,500 points.
Extreme greed doesn’t necessarily mean a reversal and drop will happen right away, but it does mean market positions are already crowded and the margin for error becomes very small. Holiday-prep operation suggestions:
Reduce leverage to within 5x, or take some profits off the table if you’re using 10x+ leverage positions.
Use isolated margin (逐仓) and set stop-loss orders on the exchange in advance.
Don’t carry full positions through the holiday.
If spot positions are trapped, you may still have chances to wait for a rebound. But with high leverage, once liquidation happens, the funds are gone for good.
Wishing you all a happy Mid-Autumn and National Day with family togetherness—may your accounts stay steady and “reunited” too 🥮
A week ago, the market fear index was only 34, sitting in the fear zone. Yesterday it surged straight to 78, entering extreme greed. BTC has gained more than 10% over the past week and has held above the 86,000 mark.
With such a fast switch in sentiment, I need to remind everyone before the holiday: watch out for a “Mid-Autumn disaster” and a “National Day disaster.”
Looking back at past market moves:
In 2017, ahead of National Day, domestic exchanges saw a wave of shutdowns. BTC crashed for eight days, dropping nearly 40%, with a low of $2,972.
In 2021, just three days after Mid-Autumn, the central bank issued a notice. Within an hour, BTC was quickly smashed from 45,000 to 42,000.
On National Day in 2024, a geopolitical conflict erupted. BTC fell from 66,500 to 60,000, and in the positions liquidated, longs made up over 95%.
After the 8-day break spanning Mid-Autumn and National Day in 2025 ended, the 10/10 tariff news was released. In just three hours, BTC plunged from 123,000 to 102,000. Liquidations across the whole network totaled $19.1 billion, setting the record for the largest single-day clearing. A staggering 1.62 million people were caught. And just a few days before the selloff, BTC had only refreshed its all-time high.
I’m not superstitious about so-called holiday “curses.” The trigger for each major drop is different. But long holidays can amplify risk: traders in Chinese-speaking regions go on break, market liquidity worsens, many people stop watching the order book as closely, take-profit/stop-loss discipline loosens, and the crypto market still doesn’t have circuit-breaker protection. During last year’s 10/10 move, the BTC perpetual contract price basis/spread spiked to a level of over a thousand times in an instant—yet just when liquidity was most needed, liquidity essentially dried up.
Let’s do a quick calculation: the current BTC price is 86,000. A move of ten thousand points means a range of 11.6%. With 10x leverage, if it drops by just 8%-9%, liquidations are likely to be triggered. One big red candle down for ten thousand points and your position is wiped out immediately. Last year’s drop was 16.9%; translated to today, that’s roughly a fluctuation of 14,500 points.
Extreme greed doesn’t necessarily mean a reversal and drop will happen right away, but it does mean market positions are already crowded and the margin for error becomes very small. Holiday-prep operation suggestions:
Reduce leverage to within 5x, or take some profits off the table if you’re using 10x+ leverage positions.
Use isolated margin (逐仓) and set stop-loss orders on the exchange in advance.
Don’t carry full positions through the holiday.
If spot positions are trapped, you may still have chances to wait for a rebound. But with high leverage, once liquidation happens, the funds are gone for good.
Wishing you all a happy Mid-Autumn and National Day with family togetherness—may your accounts stay steady and “reunited” too 🥮