On Friday, the derivatives market will see a major shake-up.
On September 25, about $18 billion worth of options will expire at $BTC and $ETH : approximately $15.9 billion relates to Bitcoin and another $2.1 billion to Ethereum.
The current max pain level is around $75K for BTC and $2,250 for ETH.
And here it’s important not to fall into the typical trap.
Max pain is not a price forecast. It’s a calculated level where the total payouts to option buyers would be minimal. It shows the structure of open positions, but it doesn’t say where the market “should” go.
Glassnode also calls September 25 a significant barrier: only on Deribit and IBIT there is about $14 billion in open interest in BTC.
So we truly have a major positioning knot. But not a magnet that will guaranteed pull Bitcoin to $75K.
I actually like moments like this for one simple reason: they clearly show how easily the market turns statistics into prophecy.
Let’s see what happens after the expiry. That’s when it will become clear how much of the movement was created by positioning, and how much by real demand.
If you want to break down derivatives without fortune-telling around max pain, subscribe to @MoonMan567
On September 25, about $18 billion worth of options will expire at $BTC and $ETH : approximately $15.9 billion relates to Bitcoin and another $2.1 billion to Ethereum.
The current max pain level is around $75K for BTC and $2,250 for ETH.
And here it’s important not to fall into the typical trap.
Max pain is not a price forecast. It’s a calculated level where the total payouts to option buyers would be minimal. It shows the structure of open positions, but it doesn’t say where the market “should” go.
Glassnode also calls September 25 a significant barrier: only on Deribit and IBIT there is about $14 billion in open interest in BTC.
So we truly have a major positioning knot. But not a magnet that will guaranteed pull Bitcoin to $75K.
I actually like moments like this for one simple reason: they clearly show how easily the market turns statistics into prophecy.
Let’s see what happens after the expiry. That’s when it will become clear how much of the movement was created by positioning, and how much by real demand.
If you want to break down derivatives without fortune-telling around max pain, subscribe to @MoonMan567
